#1Justin Fields

QB·Ohio State·2020 201912.7 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Justin Fields is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Ohio State. Justin's 2020 season ranks in the 80th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 277 plays — a above-average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Justin Fields's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Passing

158/225 Comp/Att2100 Pass yards22 Pass TD6 INT70.2% Comp %

Rushing

383 Rush yards5 Rush TD81 Carries4.7 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs QB peers

Efficiency80
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency76
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)80th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency76th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the QB position (80th percentile).
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.45 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.81 EPA/play in Wk 8 vs Nebraska (SP+ 8).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Blake Sims	Alabama	2014	473	0.696	15.4	329.4
Kaidon Salter	Liberty	2023	486	0.711	14.7	345.6
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
8	vsNebraska	W52-17	7.7	20/21	276	2	0	54	1	0.81
9	@Penn State	W38-25	13.9	28/34	318	4	0	-4	0	0.61
10	vsRutgers	W49-27	-10.5	24/28	314	5	0	7	1	0.76
12	vsIndiana	W42-35	11.2	18/30	300	2	3	78	1	0.33
14	@Michigan State	W52-12	-2.4	17/24	199	2	0	104	2	0.54
16	vsNorthwestern	W22-10	9.0	12/27	114	0	2	35	0	-0.23
1	vsAlabama	L24-52	28.3	17/33	194	1	0	67	0	0.20
1	vsClemson	W49-28	26.1	22/28	385	6	1	42	0	0.20

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

53.5%

Passing plays

100.0%

Rushing plays

18.7%

Standard downs

46.3%

Passing downs

72.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.34
Passing downs: 0.80
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.45 / 0.73

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 — 2020 · 22 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2019	Ohio State	17.0	0.713	—	385.1
2020	Ohio State	12.7	0.592	-0.12	195.3

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.