South Carolina vs. Tennessee: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SCTeam statsTENN
- Q4 11:41TENNDaniel Bituli 29 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Brent Cimaglia Kick)21–41
- Q4 12:21TENNBrent Cimaglia 31 Yd Field Goal 21–34
- Q3 5:07TENNMarquez Callaway 55 Yd pass from J.T. Shrout (Brent Cimaglia Kick)21–31
- Q3 8:16TENNJauan Jennings 19 Yd pass from Jarrett Guarantano (Brent Cimaglia Kick)21–24
- Q2 0:10SCTavien Feaster 1 Yd Run (Parker White Kick)21–17
- Q2 2:34TENNJauan Jennings 48 Yd pass from Jarrett Guarantano (Brent Cimaglia Kick)14–17
- Q2 3:16SCMon Denson 1 Yd Run (Parker White Kick)14–10
- Q2 9:50TENNMarquez Callaway 65 Yd Punt Return (Brent Cimaglia Kick)7–10
- Q1 7:19TENNBrent Cimaglia 46 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 14:49SCShi Smith 75 Yd pass from Ryan Hilinski (Parker White Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- TENN lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 36% success rate
- PassRyan Hilinski 28/51, 319 YDS, 1 TD
- RushTavien Feaster 19 CAR, 80 YDS, 1 TD
- RecShi Smith 11 REC, 156 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJarrett Guarantano 11/19, 229 YDS, 2 TD
- RushTy Chandler 16 CAR, 78 YDS
- RecJauan Jennings 7 REC, 174 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTENN up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 8:16TENN +27%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 19 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)
- Q3 5:07TENN +26%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Marquez Callaway for 55 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)
- Q2 0:10SC +23%
Tavien Feaster run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker White KICK)
- Q2 2:34TENN +23%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 48 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)
- Q2 3:16SC +22%
Mon Denson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker White KICK)
- Q2 9:50TENN +18%
Joseph Charlton punt for 55 yds, Marquez Callaway returns for 65 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of South Carolina vs. Tennessee?
South Carolina 21, Tennessee 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SC, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| SC | TENN | |
|---|---|---|
| 397 | Total yards | 485 |
| 319 | Passing yards | 351 |
| 78 | Rushing yards | 134 |
| 22 | First downs | 20 |
| 4-18 | 3rd down | 5-14 |
| 2-5 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 28/51 | Comp/Att | 18/30 |
| 6.3 | Yards per pass | 11.7 |
| 2.6 | Yards per rush | 3.5 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 8-65 | Penalties | 8-49 |
| 25:32 | Possession | 34:28 |
Costliest call
Q3 3:43 TENN punt on 4th & 1 at TENN 29. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.11 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 11:41TENNDaniel Bituli 29 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Brent Cimaglia Kick)21–41
- Q4 12:21TENNBrent Cimaglia 31 Yd Field Goal 21–34
- Q3 5:07TENNMarquez Callaway 55 Yd pass from J.T. Shrout (Brent Cimaglia Kick)21–31
- Q3 8:16TENNJauan Jennings 19 Yd pass from Jarrett Guarantano (Brent Cimaglia Kick)21–24
- Q2 0:10SCTavien Feaster 1 Yd Run (Parker White Kick)21–17
- Q2 2:34TENNJauan Jennings 48 Yd pass from Jarrett Guarantano (Brent Cimaglia Kick)14–17
- Q2 3:16SCMon Denson 1 Yd Run (Parker White Kick)14–10
- Q2 9:50TENNMarquez Callaway 65 Yd Punt Return (Brent Cimaglia Kick)7–10
- Q1 7:19TENNBrent Cimaglia 46 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 14:49SCShi Smith 75 Yd pass from Ryan Hilinski (Parker White Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TENN Elo 1391, SC Elo 1575 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TENN +5 (38% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#35 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #79 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →Tennessee leads 29–11–2 · 45% have been one-possession games
| SC | TENN | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.0 (#62) | CORE overall | +6.5 (#38) |
| -8 / -8 | offense / defense | -1 / -8 |
| 1.25 | points / drive | 2.01 |
| 1.99 | allowed / drive | 1.83 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +5 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →