Missouri vs. Vanderbilt: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MIZTeam statsVAN
- Q4 8:57VANCam Johnson 21 Yd pass from Riley Neal (Ryley Guay Kick)14–21
- Q3 1:37MIZLarry Rountree III 6 Yd Run (Tucker McCann Kick)14–14
- Q2 2:06VANKe'Shawn Vaughn 61 Yd pass from Mo Hasan (Ryley Guay Kick)7–14
- Q2 9:03MIZAlbert Okwuegbunam 4 Yd pass from Kelly Bryant (Tucker McCann Kick)7–7
- Q2 12:00VANKe'Shawn Vaughn 1 Yd Run (Ryley Guay Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- VAN lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 35% success rate
- PassKelly Bryant 13/26, 140 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushKelly Bryant 16 CAR, 72 YDS
- RecKam Scott 2 REC, 69 YDS
- PassMo Hasan 7/11, 120 YDS, 1 TD
- RushKe'Shawn Vaughn 29 CAR, 96 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKe'Shawn Vaughn 4 REC, 80 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 8:57VAN +46%
Riley Neal pass complete to Cam Johnson for 21 yds for a TD, (Ryley Guay KICK)
- Q3 1:37MIZ +38%
Larry Rountree III run for 6 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)
- Q4 0:04VAN +34%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to James Bostic
- Q2 2:06VAN +23%
Mo Hasan pass complete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for 61 yds for a TD, (Ryley Guay KICK)
- Q2 12:00VAN +16%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryley Guay KICK)
- Q3 5:54VAN +15%
Mo Hasan pass complete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for 2 yds to the Vandy 28
FAQ
What was the final score of Missouri vs. Vanderbilt?
Missouri 14, Vanderbilt 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MIZ, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MIZ | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| 293 | Total yards | 315 |
| 140 | Passing yards | 165 |
| 153 | Rushing yards | 150 |
| 18 | First downs | 16 |
| 3-15 | 3rd down | 3-12 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 13/26 | Comp/Att | 10/19 |
| 5.4 | Yards per pass | 8.7 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 3.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 12-120 | Penalties | 7-72 |
| 27:09 | Possession | 32:51 |
Costliest call
Q1 15:00 VAN punt on 4th & 1 at VAN 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:57VANCam Johnson 21 Yd pass from Riley Neal (Ryley Guay Kick)14–21
- Q3 1:37MIZLarry Rountree III 6 Yd Run (Tucker McCann Kick)14–14
- Q2 2:06VANKe'Shawn Vaughn 61 Yd pass from Mo Hasan (Ryley Guay Kick)7–14
- Q2 9:03MIZAlbert Okwuegbunam 4 Yd pass from Kelly Bryant (Tucker McCann Kick)7–7
- Q2 12:00VANKe'Shawn Vaughn 1 Yd Run (Ryley Guay Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (VAN Elo 1286, MIZ Elo 1862 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects VAN +20.6 (10% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#26 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #6 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds · #29 of 51 in 2019 by biggest poll gap.
The 2019 upset archive →Missouri leads 10–5–1 · 56% have been one-possession games
| MIZ | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.7 (#37) | CORE overall | -18.7 (#120) |
| -4 / -10 | offense / defense | -9 / +10 |
| 1.85 | points / drive | 0.95 |
| 1.53 | allowed / drive | 2.81 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 36% |
| -0 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →