UNLV vs. San Diego State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNLVTeam statsSDSU
- Q4 3:27UNLVLexington Thomas 75 Yd Run (Max Gilliam Pass to for Two-Point Conversion)27–24
- Q4 9:19UNLVBrandon Presley 10 Yd pass from Max Gilliam (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)19–24
- Q3 0:00SDSUTim Wilson Jr. 34 Yd pass from Ryan Agnew (John Baron II Kick)13–24
- Q3 4:51SDSUJohn Baron II 33 Yd Field Goal 13–17
- Q2 0:28SDSUJuwan Washington 2 Yd Run (John Baron II Kick)13–14
- Q2 10:35UNLVLexington Thomas 2 Yd Run (Evan Pantels Kick)13–7
- Q2 13:54SDSUTim Wilson Jr. 13 Yd pass from Christian Chapman (John Baron II Kick)6–7
- Q1 7:08UNLVEvan Pantels 45 Yd Field Goal 6–0
- Q1 11:30UNLVEvan Pantels 21 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassMax Gilliam 16/24, 237 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushLexington Thomas 21 CAR, 133 YDS, 2 TD
- RecDarren Woods Jr. 4 REC, 100 YDS
- PassRyan Agnew 14/26, 187 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJuwan Washington 21 CAR, 66 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTim Wilson Jr. 5 REC, 123 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSDSU up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 3:27UNLV +68%
Lexington Thomas run for 75 yds for a TD (Max Gilliam pass for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q4 0:13UNLV +46%
Hayes Hicken punt for 35 yds, Garrett Binkley returns for 1 yd to the SDSt 32
- Q4 3:19SDSU +27%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Ethan Dedeaux for 8 yds to the SDSt 47
- Q2 10:35UNLV +16%
Lexington Thomas run for 2 yds for a TD (Evan Pantels KICK)
- Q2 0:28SDSU +16%
Juwan Washington run for 2 yds for a TD (John Baron II KICK)
- Q2 13:54SDSU +11%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Tim Wilson Jr. for 13 yds for a TD (John Baron II KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of UNLV vs. San Diego State?
UNLV 27, San Diego State 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SDSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UNLV | SDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 436 | Total yards | 368 |
| 237 | Passing yards | 279 |
| 199 | Rushing yards | 89 |
| 19 | First downs | 21 |
| 8-15 | 3rd down | 5-14 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 16/24 | Comp/Att | 22/36 |
| 9.9 | Yards per pass | 7.8 |
| 4.6 | Yards per rush | 2.6 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 5-51 | Penalties | 4-45 |
| 29:17 | Possession | 30:43 |
Costliest call
Q1 7:08 SDSU punt on 4th & 1 at SDSU 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:27UNLVLexington Thomas 75 Yd Run (Max Gilliam Pass to for Two-Point Conversion)27–24
- Q4 9:19UNLVBrandon Presley 10 Yd pass from Max Gilliam (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)19–24
- Q3 0:00SDSUTim Wilson Jr. 34 Yd pass from Ryan Agnew (John Baron II Kick)13–24
- Q3 4:51SDSUJohn Baron II 33 Yd Field Goal 13–17
- Q2 0:28SDSUJuwan Washington 2 Yd Run (John Baron II Kick)13–14
- Q2 10:35UNLVLexington Thomas 2 Yd Run (Evan Pantels Kick)13–7
- Q2 13:54SDSUTim Wilson Jr. 13 Yd pass from Christian Chapman (John Baron II Kick)6–7
- Q1 7:08UNLVEvan Pantels 45 Yd Field Goal 6–0
- Q1 11:30UNLVEvan Pantels 21 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SDSU Elo 1569, UNLV Elo 1117 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SDSU -20.5 (90% to win) — 3.5 points clear of UNLV's market line of -24. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#42 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #2 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds.
The 2018 upset archive →San Diego State leads 22–11 · 36% have been one-possession games
| UNLV | SDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -18.3 (#114) | CORE overall | +1.4 (#55) |
| -4 / +15 | offense / defense | -5 / -7 |
| 2.06 | points / drive | 1.70 |
| 3.00 | allowed / drive | 1.85 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| -9 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →