Ohio vs. Northern Illinois: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
OHIOTeam statsNIU
- Q4 1:45NIUKenny Golladay 11 Yd pass from Tommy Fiedler (Christian Hagan Kick)26–21
- Q4 7:42OHIOJosiah Yazdani 26 Yd Field Goal 26–14
- Q4 11:42OHIOJosiah Yazdani 26 Yd Field Goal 23–14
- Q3 9:43NIUKenny Golladay 27 Yd pass from Ryan Graham (Christian Hagan Kick)20–14
- Q2 1:05OHIOJosiah Yazdani 31 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q2 7:52OHIOKeith Heitzman 5 Yd pass from Greg Windham (Josiah Yazdani Kick)17–7
- Q2 11:03OHIOJosiah Yazdani 22 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 3:00NIUJordan Huff 5 Yd Run (Christian Hagan Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:36OHIOJordan Reid 28 Yd pass from JD Sprague (Josiah Yazdani Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- NIU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and OHIO did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.8 vs 3rd & 6.7
- PassJD Sprague 6/11, 92 YDS, 1 TD
- RushA.J. Ouellette 30 CAR, 140 YDS
- RecJordan Reid 5 REC, 66 YDS, 1 TD
- PassRyan Graham 11/17, 142 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJoel Bouagnon 16 CAR, 37 YDS
- RecJuwan Brescacin 6 REC, 114 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOHIO up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 7:52OHIO +25%
Greg Windham pass complete to Keith Heitzman for 5 yds for a TD, (Josiah Yazdani KICK)
- Q3 9:43NIU +25%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 27 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)
- Q4 11:42OHIO +18%
Josiah Yazdani 26 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 0:00OHIO +17%
Greg Windham run for 2 yds to the Ohio 45
- Q1 3:00NIU +17%
Jordan Huff run for 5 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)
- Q1 6:36OHIO +16%
JD Sprague pass complete to Jordan Reid for 28 yds for a TD, (Josiah Yazdani KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Ohio vs. Northern Illinois?
Ohio 26, Northern Illinois 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked NIU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| OHIO | NIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 398 | Total yards | 328 |
| 168 | Passing yards | 255 |
| 230 | Rushing yards | 73 |
| 19 | First downs | 17 |
| 5-18 | 3rd down | 4-17 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 3-4 |
| 14/29 | Comp/Att | 20/34 |
| 5.8 | Yards per pass | 7.5 |
| 4.6 | Yards per rush | 1.9 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 2-20 | Penalties | 6-50 |
| 35:37 | Possession | 24:23 |
Costliest call
Q4 4:15 OHIO punt on 4th & 1 at OHIO 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.43 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:45NIUKenny Golladay 11 Yd pass from Tommy Fiedler (Christian Hagan Kick)26–21
- Q4 7:42OHIOJosiah Yazdani 26 Yd Field Goal 26–14
- Q4 11:42OHIOJosiah Yazdani 26 Yd Field Goal 23–14
- Q3 9:43NIUKenny Golladay 27 Yd pass from Ryan Graham (Christian Hagan Kick)20–14
- Q2 1:05OHIOJosiah Yazdani 31 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q2 7:52OHIOKeith Heitzman 5 Yd pass from Greg Windham (Josiah Yazdani Kick)17–7
- Q2 11:03OHIOJosiah Yazdani 22 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 3:00NIUJordan Huff 5 Yd Run (Christian Hagan Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:36OHIOJordan Reid 28 Yd pass from JD Sprague (Josiah Yazdani Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NIU Elo 1603, OHIO Elo 1296 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NIU -14.7 (84% to win) — 2.7 points clear of NIU's market line of -12. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#58 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #20 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds.
The 2015 upset archive →Northern Illinois leads 14–12 · 50% have been one-possession games
| OHIO | NIU | |
|---|---|---|
| -4.7 (#82) | CORE overall | -1.6 (#73) |
| -7 / -2 | offense / defense | -6 / -4 |
| 1.91 | points / drive | 2.04 |
| 1.82 | allowed / drive | 1.98 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 34% |
| -3 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →