North Carolina vs. East Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNCTeam statsECU
- Q4 7:09UNCRomar Morris 14 Yd Run (Nick Weiler Kick)41–70
- Q4 7:30ECUKurt Benkert 4 Yd Run (Warren Harvey Kick)34–70
- Q4 9:28UNCJack Tabb 10 Yd pass from Mitch Trubisky (Nick Weiler Kick)34–63
- Q4 11:07ECUShane Carden 1 Yd Run (Warren Harvey Kick)27–63
- Q3 1:46ECUIsaiah Jones 25 Yd pass from Shane Carden (Warren Harvey Kick)27–56
- Q3 5:14ECUShane Carden 2 Yd Run (Warren Harvey Kick)27–49
- Q3 11:49UNCRomar Morris 7 Yd Run (Nick Weiler Kick)27–42
- Q3 14:20ECUZeek Bigger 46 Yd Interception Return (Warren Harvey Kick)20–42
- Q2 0:08ECUBrandon Bishop 19 Yd pass from Shane Carden (Warren Harvey Kick)20–35
- Q2 3:48ECUBreon Allen 44 Yd Run (Warren Harvey Kick)20–28
- Q2 10:01ECUTrevon Brown 26 Yd pass from Shane Carden (Warren Harvey Kick)20–21
- Q2 12:15UNCEric Albright 29 Yd pass from Tommy Hibbard (Nick Weiler Kick)20–14
- Q1 4:03ECUBreon Allen 11 Yd Run (Warren Harvey Kick)13–14
- Q1 5:00UNCNick Weiler 22 Yd Field Goal 13–7
- Q1 9:43UNCT.J. Thorpe 35 Yd pass from Ryan Switzer (Nick Weiler Kick)10–7
- Q1 11:58UNCNick Weiler 21 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 14:04ECUTrevon Brown 55 Yd pass from Shane Carden (Warren Harvey Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassMarquise Williams 14/25, 127 YDS, 1 INT
- RushRomar Morris 9 CAR, 46 YDS, 2 TD
- RecMack Hollins 4 REC, 92 YDS
- PassShane Carden 30/48, 438 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- RushBreon Allen 18 CAR, 211 YDS, 2 TD
- RecTrevon Brown 5 REC, 117 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsECU up 29 entering the 4th quarter. Across 527 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 3:48ECU +22%
Breon Allen run for 44 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)
- Q2 10:01ECU +20%
Shane Carden pass complete to Trevon Brown for 26 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)
- Q2 12:15UNC +19%
Tommy Hibbard pass complete to Eric Albright for 29 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
- Q1 9:43UNC +18%
Ryan Switzer pass complete to T.J. Thorpe for 35 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
- Q1 4:03ECU +18%
Breon Allen run for 11 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)
- Q1 14:04ECU +17%
Shane Carden pass complete to Trevon Brown for 55 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of North Carolina vs. East Carolina?
North Carolina 41, East Carolina 70.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UNC, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UNC | ECU | |
|---|---|---|
| 439 | Total yards | 789 |
| 294 | Passing yards | 446 |
| 145 | Rushing yards | 343 |
| 23 | First downs | 39 |
| 6-18 | 3rd down | 12-17 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 24/43 | Comp/Att | 32/51 |
| 6.8 | Yards per pass | 8.7 |
| 3.7 | Yards per rush | 7.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-85 | Penalties | 9-74 |
| 25:01 | Possession | 34:59 |
Costliest call
Q2 7:57 ECU punt on 4th & 3 at UNC 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.96 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:09UNCRomar Morris 14 Yd Run (Nick Weiler Kick)41–70
- Q4 7:30ECUKurt Benkert 4 Yd Run (Warren Harvey Kick)34–70
- Q4 9:28UNCJack Tabb 10 Yd pass from Mitch Trubisky (Nick Weiler Kick)34–63
- Q4 11:07ECUShane Carden 1 Yd Run (Warren Harvey Kick)27–63
- Q3 1:46ECUIsaiah Jones 25 Yd pass from Shane Carden (Warren Harvey Kick)27–56
- Q3 5:14ECUShane Carden 2 Yd Run (Warren Harvey Kick)27–49
- Q3 11:49UNCRomar Morris 7 Yd Run (Nick Weiler Kick)27–42
- Q3 14:20ECUZeek Bigger 46 Yd Interception Return (Warren Harvey Kick)20–42
- Q2 0:08ECUBrandon Bishop 19 Yd pass from Shane Carden (Warren Harvey Kick)20–35
- Q2 3:48ECUBreon Allen 44 Yd Run (Warren Harvey Kick)20–28
- Q2 10:01ECUTrevon Brown 26 Yd pass from Shane Carden (Warren Harvey Kick)20–21
- Q2 12:15UNCEric Albright 29 Yd pass from Tommy Hibbard (Nick Weiler Kick)20–14
- Q1 4:03ECUBreon Allen 11 Yd Run (Warren Harvey Kick)13–14
- Q1 5:00UNCNick Weiler 22 Yd Field Goal 13–7
- Q1 9:43UNCT.J. Thorpe 35 Yd pass from Ryan Switzer (Nick Weiler Kick)10–7
- Q1 11:58UNCNick Weiler 21 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 14:04ECUTrevon Brown 55 Yd pass from Shane Carden (Warren Harvey Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ECU Elo 1605, UNC Elo 1755 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ECU +3.6 (42% to win) — 3.1 points clear of UNC's market line of +0.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#21 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #89 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →North Carolina leads 12–5–1 · East Carolina has won 3 straight · 33% have been one-possession games
| UNC | ECU | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.21 | points / drive | 2.27 |
| 3.01 | allowed / drive | 1.80 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 17% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →