UCF vs. Baylor: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UCFTeam statsBAY
- Q4 1:15BAYBAYLOR Extra point GOOD.52–42
- Q4 1:15BAYBAYLOR pass complete for a touchdown.52–41
- Q4 4:44UCFUCF 36 yard field goal GOOD.52–35
- Q4 10:26UCFUCF Extra point GOOD.49–35
- Q4 10:26UCFUCF rush for a touchdown.48–35
- Q4 12:16BAYBAYLOR Extra point GOOD.42–35
- Q4 12:16BAYBAYLOR rush for a touchdown.42–34
- Q4 13:37UCFUCF Extra point GOOD.42–28
- Q4 13:37UCFUCF rush for a touchdown.41–28
- Q3 5:38UCFUCF Extra point GOOD.35–28
- Q3 5:38UCFUCF pass complete for a touchdown.34–28
- Q3 10:18BAYBAYLOR2-point conversion rush GOOD.28–28
- Q3 10:18BAYBAYLOR rush for a touchdown.28–26
- Q2 0:44UCFUCF Extra point GOOD.28–20
- Q2 0:44UCFUCF pass complete for a touchdown.27–20
- Q2 2:55BAYBAYLOR Extra point GOOD.21–20
- Q2 2:55BAYBAYLOR rush for a touchdown.21–19
- Q2 5:05UCFUCF Extra point GOOD.21–13
- Q2 5:05UCFUCF pass complete for a touchdown.20–13
- Q2 8:01BAYBAYLOR pass complete for a touchdown.14–13
- Q1 3:49BAYBAYLOR Extra point GOOD.14–7
- Q1 3:49BAYBAYLOR rush for a touchdown.14–6
- Q1 7:46UCFUCF Extra point GOOD.14–0
- Q1 7:46UCFUCF rush for a touchdown.13–0
- Q1 11:24UCFUCF Extra point GOOD.7–0
- Q1 11:24UCFUCF rush for a touchdown.6–0
How the model called it
- PassBlake Bortles 20/31, 301 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushStorm Johnson 20 CAR, 124 YDS, 3 TD
- RecRannell Hall 4 REC, 113 YDS, 2 TD
- PassBryce Petty 30/47, 356 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushLache Seastrunk 17 CAR, 117 YDS
- RecCorey Coleman 7 REC, 88 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUCF up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 13:37UCF +34%
Blake Bortles rush for 15 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 5:38UCF +26%
Blake Bortles pass complete to Breshad Perriman for 10 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 12:16BAY +24%
BAYLOR penalty 5 yard False Start on Tre'Von Armstead accepted
- Q3 10:18BAY +21%
Bryce Petty rush for 1 yard for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 0:44UCF +21%
Blake Bortles pass complete to Rannell Hall for 34 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 5:05UCF +20%
Blake Bortles pass complete to Rannell Hall for 50 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of UCF vs. Baylor?
UCF 52, Baylor 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BAY, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UCF | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| 556 | Total yards | 550 |
| 301 | Passing yards | 356 |
| 255 | Rushing yards | 194 |
| 29 | First downs | 26 |
| 6-11 | 3rd down | 9-18 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 20/31 | Comp/Att | 30/47 |
| 9.7 | Yards per pass | 7.6 |
| 5.8 | Yards per rush | 5.1 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-40 | Penalties | 17-135 |
| 34:47 | Possession | 25:13 |
Costliest call
Q2 8:31 BAY punt on 4th & 1 at BAY 13. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.12 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:15BAYBAYLOR Extra point GOOD.52–42
- Q4 1:15BAYBAYLOR pass complete for a touchdown.52–41
- Q4 4:44UCFUCF 36 yard field goal GOOD.52–35
- Q4 10:26UCFUCF Extra point GOOD.49–35
- Q4 10:26UCFUCF rush for a touchdown.48–35
- Q4 12:16BAYBAYLOR Extra point GOOD.42–35
- Q4 12:16BAYBAYLOR rush for a touchdown.42–34
- Q4 13:37UCFUCF Extra point GOOD.42–28
- Q4 13:37UCFUCF rush for a touchdown.41–28
- Q3 5:38UCFUCF Extra point GOOD.35–28
- Q3 5:38UCFUCF pass complete for a touchdown.34–28
- Q3 10:18BAYBAYLOR2-point conversion rush GOOD.28–28
- Q3 10:18BAYBAYLOR rush for a touchdown.28–26
- Q2 0:44UCFUCF Extra point GOOD.28–20
- Q2 0:44UCFUCF pass complete for a touchdown.27–20
- Q2 2:55BAYBAYLOR Extra point GOOD.21–20
- Q2 2:55BAYBAYLOR rush for a touchdown.21–19
- Q2 5:05UCFUCF Extra point GOOD.21–13
- Q2 5:05UCFUCF pass complete for a touchdown.20–13
- Q2 8:01BAYBAYLOR pass complete for a touchdown.14–13
- Q1 3:49BAYBAYLOR Extra point GOOD.14–7
- Q1 3:49BAYBAYLOR rush for a touchdown.14–6
- Q1 7:46UCFUCF Extra point GOOD.14–0
- Q1 7:46UCFUCF rush for a touchdown.13–0
- Q1 11:24UCFUCF Extra point GOOD.7–0
- Q1 11:24UCFUCF rush for a touchdown.6–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BAY Elo 2079, UCF Elo 1792 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects BAY -11.5 (78% to win) — 5.0 points clear of UCF's market line of -16.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2013
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#41 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #14 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.
The 2013 upset archive →Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →