Ball State vs. Virginia: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BALLTeam statsUVA
- Q4 5:15BALLBALL ST Extra point GOOD.48–27
- Q4 5:15BALLBALL ST rush for a touchdown.47–27
- Q4 10:02BALLBALL ST Extra point GOOD.41–27
- Q4 10:02BALLBALL ST pass complete for a touchdown.40–27
- Q4 10:41UVAVIRGINIA 38 yard field goal GOOD.34–27
- Q4 14:52BALLBALL ST 45 yard field goal GOOD.34–24
- Q3 1:26BALLBALL ST Extra point GOOD.31–24
- Q3 1:26BALLBALL ST rush for a touchdown.30–24
- Q3 7:09UVAVIRGINIA Extra point GOOD.24–24
- Q3 7:09UVAVIRGINIA rush for a touchdown.24–23
- Q3 11:26BALLBALL ST Extra point GOOD.24–17
- Q3 11:26BALLBALL ST rush for a touchdown.23–17
- Q2 5:49BALLBALL ST Extra point GOOD.17–17
- Q2 5:49BALLBALL ST pass complete for a touchdown.16–17
- Q2 11:48BALLBALL ST 21 yard field goal GOOD.10–17
- Q2 14:41UVAVIRGINIA Extra point GOOD.7–17
- Q2 14:41UVAVIRGINIA rush for a touchdown.7–16
- Q1 3:29UVAVIRGINIA Extra point GOOD.7–10
- Q1 3:29UVAVIRGINIA rush for a touchdown.7–9
- Q1 6:00BALLBALL ST Extra point GOOD.7–3
- Q1 6:00BALLBALL ST rush for a touchdown.6–3
- Q1 7:34UVAVIRGINIA 39 yard field goal GOOD.0–3
How the model called it
- PassKeith Wenning 23/41, 346 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJahwan Edwards 24 CAR, 155 YDS, 3 TD
- RecJordan Williams-Lambert 9 REC, 159 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDavid Watford 21/36, 209 YDS, 1 INT
- RushKevin Parks 16 CAR, 104 YDS, 2 TD
- RecTim Smith 1 REC, 46 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBALL up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 1:26BALL +23%
Jahwan Edwards rush for 32 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 7:09UVA +21%
Kevin Parks rush for 2 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 5:49BALL +20%
Keith Wenning pass complete to Willie Snead for 11 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 11:26BALL +19%
Keith Wenning rush for 1 yard for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 14:41UVA +17%
David Watford rush for 27 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 10:02BALL +15%
Keith Wenning pass complete to Jordan Williams for 72 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Ball State vs. Virginia?
Ball State 48, Virginia 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (BALL) was correct.
| BALL | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| 506 | Total yards | 459 |
| 346 | Passing yards | 223 |
| 160 | Rushing yards | 236 |
| 29 | First downs | 22 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 8-18 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 23/41 | Comp/Att | 22/42 |
| 8.4 | Yards per pass | 5.3 |
| 4.0 | Yards per rush | 5.8 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 1-15 | Penalties | 13-93 |
| 31:26 | Possession | 28:34 |
Costliest call
Q1 15:00 UVA punt on 4th & 1 at UVA 31. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.10 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:15BALLBALL ST Extra point GOOD.48–27
- Q4 5:15BALLBALL ST rush for a touchdown.47–27
- Q4 10:02BALLBALL ST Extra point GOOD.41–27
- Q4 10:02BALLBALL ST pass complete for a touchdown.40–27
- Q4 10:41UVAVIRGINIA 38 yard field goal GOOD.34–27
- Q4 14:52BALLBALL ST 45 yard field goal GOOD.34–24
- Q3 1:26BALLBALL ST Extra point GOOD.31–24
- Q3 1:26BALLBALL ST rush for a touchdown.30–24
- Q3 7:09UVAVIRGINIA Extra point GOOD.24–24
- Q3 7:09UVAVIRGINIA rush for a touchdown.24–23
- Q3 11:26BALLBALL ST Extra point GOOD.24–17
- Q3 11:26BALLBALL ST rush for a touchdown.23–17
- Q2 5:49BALLBALL ST Extra point GOOD.17–17
- Q2 5:49BALLBALL ST pass complete for a touchdown.16–17
- Q2 11:48BALLBALL ST 21 yard field goal GOOD.10–17
- Q2 14:41UVAVIRGINIA Extra point GOOD.7–17
- Q2 14:41UVAVIRGINIA rush for a touchdown.7–16
- Q1 3:29UVAVIRGINIA Extra point GOOD.7–10
- Q1 3:29UVAVIRGINIA rush for a touchdown.7–9
- Q1 6:00BALLBALL ST Extra point GOOD.7–3
- Q1 6:00BALLBALL ST rush for a touchdown.6–3
- Q1 7:34UVAVIRGINIA 39 yard field goal GOOD.0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UVA Elo 1340, BALL Elo 1532 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UVA +5.3 (37% to win) — 9.8 points clear of BALL's market line of -4.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2013
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#34 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #67 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.
The 2013 upset archive →Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →