Watchlist
Week 9 of 2026, ranked by a score whose parts are all shown. No term rewards a program for being famous — if a Tuesday MAC game outranks the night game, that is the answer.
The five
- 1Time TBDLos Angeles Memorial Coliseummodel USC by 0.3market +7.5
- Projected closeness 34/35
- Team quality 28/30
- Stakes 15/15
- History 3/10
80score - 2Time TBDMemorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)model Washington by 1.0
- Projected closeness 32/35
- Team quality 23/30
- Stakes 7/15
- History 1/10
- Points on the board 3/10
66score - 3Time TBDDoak Campbell Stadiummodel Clemson by 2.3market +1.5
- Projected closeness 28/35
- Team quality 18/30
- Stakes 3/15
- History 4/10
- Points on the board 3/10
55score - 4Floridavs#2GeorgiaFlorida-GeorgiaSat, Oct 31 · 3:30 PM ETMercedes-Benz Stadiummodel Georgia by 15.0market -12.5
- Projected closeness 8/35
- Team quality 25/30
- Stakes 9/15
- History 9/10
- Points on the board 2/10
53score - 5Time TBDMemorial Stadium (Norman, OK)model Oklahoma by 8.2
- Projected closeness 16/35
- Team quality 26/30
- Stakes 8/15
- Points on the board 2/10
52score
The rest of the slate
- 6Time TBDSimmons Bank Liberty Stadiummodel Army by 2.9
- Projected closeness 26/35
- Team quality 18/30
- Stakes 3/15
- Points on the board 4/10
51score - 7Fri, Oct 30 · 7:30 PM ETFBC Mortgage Stadiummodel Baylor by 1.8
- Projected closeness 29/35
- Team quality 14/30
- Stakes 3/15
- Points on the board 4/10
50score - 8Tue, Oct 27 · 7:00 PM ETHouchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadiummodel Western Kentucky by 0.0
- Projected closeness 35/35
- Team quality 7/30
- Stakes 3/15
- Points on the board 4/10
49score - 9Time TBDKinnick Stadiummodel Iowa by 9.2
- Projected closeness 14/35
- Team quality 19/30
- Stakes 7/15
- History 5/10
- Points on the board 4/10
49score - 10#23MissouriatArkansasBattle Line RivalryTime TBDRazorback Stadiummodel Missouri by 11.6
- Projected closeness 11/35
- Team quality 20/30
- Stakes 7/15
- History 6/10
- Points on the board 4/10
48score - 11Time TBDHancock Whitney Stadiummodel Louisiana Tech by 1.4
- Projected closeness 30/35
- Team quality 11/30
- Stakes 3/15
- Points on the board 4/10
48score - 12Time TBDAmon G. Carter Stadiummodel TCU by 5.1
- Projected closeness 21/35
- Team quality 17/30
- Stakes 3/15
- History 2/10
- Points on the board 3/10
46score - 13Time TBDCarter-Finley Stadiummodel NC State by 1.7
- Projected closeness 30/35
- Team quality 10/30
- Stakes 3/15
- Points on the board 4/10
46score - 14Time TBDJack Trice Stadiummodel Iowa State by 3.2
- Projected closeness 25/35
- Team quality 8/30
- Stakes 3/15
- History 4/10
- Points on the board 4/10
45score - 15Time TBDFolsom Fieldmodel Kansas State by 6.0
- Projected closeness 19/35
- Team quality 15/30
- Stakes 3/15
- History 4/10
- Points on the board 4/10
44score - 16Time TBDAcrisure Stadiummodel Pittsburgh by 8.5
- Projected closeness 15/35
- Team quality 21/30
- Stakes 3/15
- History 2/10
- Points on the board 4/10
44score - 17Time TBDSECU Stadiummodel Maryland by 4.8
- Projected closeness 22/35
- Team quality 15/30
- Stakes 3/15
- Points on the board 4/10
43score - 18#3Notre DamevsNavyNotre Dame-NavySat, Oct 31 · 12:00 PM ETGillette Stadiummodel Notre Dame by 28.3
- Projected closeness 2/35
- Team quality 22/30
- Stakes 7/15
- History 8/10
- Points on the board 3/10
43score - 19Time TBDNippert Stadiummodel Utah by 11.1
- Projected closeness 12/35
- Team quality 20/30
- Stakes 7/15
- Points on the board 4/10
42score - 20Time TBDVaught-Hemingway Stadiummodel Ole Miss by 20.1
- Projected closeness 5/35
- Team quality 24/30
- Stakes 8/15
- History 3/10
- Points on the board 2/10
42score - 21Wed, Oct 28 · 7:00 PM ETJohnny "Red" Floyd Stadiummodel Kennesaw State by 1.4
- Projected closeness 30/35
- Team quality 6/30
- Stakes 3/15
- Points on the board 3/10
42score - 22Sat, Oct 31 · 10:00 PM ETAlbertsons Stadiummodel Boise State by 5.7
- Projected closeness 20/35
- Team quality 15/30
- Stakes 3/15
- Points on the board 4/10
42score - 23Time TBDDowdy-Ficklen Stadiummodel East Carolina by 4.6
- Projected closeness 22/35
- Team quality 9/30
- Stakes 3/15
- History 3/10
- Points on the board 4/10
40score - 24Time TBDAllegacy Federal Credit Union Stadiummodel Virginia by 16.4
- Projected closeness 7/35
- Team quality 19/30
- Stakes 7/15
- History 4/10
- Points on the board 4/10
40score - 25Time TBDBeaver Stadiummodel Penn State by 9.2
- Projected closeness 14/35
- Team quality 13/30
- Stakes 8/15
- History 1/10
- Points on the board 4/10
40score - 26Time TBDLaVell Edwards Stadiummodel BYU by 17.8
- Projected closeness 6/35
- Team quality 21/30
- Stakes 8/15
- History 2/10
- Points on the board 3/10
40score - 27Time TBDJones AT&T Stadiummodel Texas Tech by 21.4
- Projected closeness 4/35
- Team quality 25/30
- Stakes 8/15
- History 2/10
- Points on the board 1/10
39score - 28Time TBDMemorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)model Indiana by 21.4
- Projected closeness 4/35
- Team quality 21/30
- Stakes 9/15
- History 4/10
- Points on the board 2/10
39score - 29Time TBDAllen E. Paulson Stadiummodel Georgia Southern by 3.8
- Projected closeness 24/35
- Team quality 6/30
- Stakes 3/15
- History 3/10
- Points on the board 3/10
39score - 30Time TBDS.B. Ballard Stadiummodel Marshall by 3.7
- Projected closeness 24/35
- Team quality 7/30
- Stakes 3/15
- History 1/10
- Points on the board 4/10
39score - 31Time TBDDKR-Texas Memorial Stadiummodel Texas by 21.1
- Projected closeness 4/35
- Team quality 23/30
- Stakes 9/15
- Points on the board 2/10
39score - 32Time TBDAutzen Stadiummodel Oregon by 16.5
- Projected closeness 7/35
- Team quality 22/30
- Stakes 8/15
- Points on the board 1/10
38score - 33Sat, Oct 31 · 7:00 PM ETSnapdragon Stadiummodel San Diego State by 10.2
- Projected closeness 13/35
- Team quality 19/30
- Stakes 3/15
- Points on the board 4/10
38score - 34Thu, Oct 29 · 7:30 PM ETDATCU Stadiummodel North Texas by 5.7
- Projected closeness 20/35
- Team quality 8/30
- Stakes 3/15
- History 3/10
- Points on the board 4/10
37score - 35Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ETAggie Memorial Stadiummodel Jacksonville State by 3.2
- Projected closeness 25/35
- Team quality 6/30
- Stakes 3/15
- Points on the board 2/10
36score - 36Time TBDSHI Stadiummodel Michigan by 9.0
- Projected closeness 14/35
- Team quality 14/30
- Stakes 3/15
- History 1/10
- Points on the board 4/10
35score - 37Time TBDRaymond James Stadiummodel South Florida by 10.4
- Projected closeness 12/35
- Team quality 15/30
- Stakes 3/15
- Points on the board 4/10
34score - 38Sat, Oct 31 · 3:00 PM ETFalcon Stadiummodel Air Force by 7.3
- Projected closeness 17/35
- Team quality 13/30
- Points on the board 4/10
34score - 39Thu, Oct 29 · 7:30 PM ETBridgeforth Stadiummodel James Madison by 11.8
- Projected closeness 11/35
- Team quality 16/30
- Stakes 3/15
- Points on the board 4/10
34score - 40Time TBDKenan Stadiummodel Miami by 26.1
- Projected closeness 3/35
- Team quality 17/30
- Stakes 8/15
- History 3/10
- Points on the board 3/10
33score
How the score is built
- Projected closeness — 35 points
- Decays exponentially in the model’s projected margin: a pick’em is the full 35, a touchdown favorite about half, three scores nothing. The largest term, because a blowout is a blowout no matter who is playing.
- Team quality — 30 points
- Elo percentile of both sides, with two thirds of the weight on the weaker team. A top-five side hosting a bad one is not a good game, and an average of the two would claim it was.
- Stakes — 15 points
- Poll position going into the week, plus a share for a conference game. Two ranked teams take most of it; the higher the pair, the more.
- Rivalry history — 10 points
- From the all-time series: a named trophy game, the length of the series, and whether the all-time ledger has stayed close.
- Points on the board — 10 points
- The projected total, from the drive-sim. A 31-28 is better television than a 10-7 and that is allowed to matter a little — but only a little, or the whole list becomes bad defenses.
There is no term for brand, television window or network. A watchability score that rewards blue bloods for existing is a popularity ranking wearing a lab coat.