Kennesaw State vs. Middle Tennessee Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Kennesaw State gets at Middle Tennessee: 23rd at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 82nd at keeping everything in front of them. Middle Tennessee projects no clear way in against Kennesaw State. Kennesaw State is also 92nd at throwing it, against a unit 133rd.
How
KENNattacks
MTSU
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
KENN#23 of 138MTSU#82 of 138 - 2
Throw it
throwing it · projected
KENN#92 of 138MTSU#133 of 138
The two teams
Kennesaw State
Kennesaw State is in year 2 under Jerry Mack. The strengths are offensive, led by 23rd at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 118th at turning trips inside the 40 into points, and they are 113th at defending the run.
Kennesaw State has played 1 game against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#23projected
Projected soft spots
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#118projected
- Defenserunning it#113projected
- Defensefirst and second down#113projected
Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee is in year 3 under Derek Mason, whose offenses have been balanced. The way in is 133rd at defending the pass, and they are 124th at holding teams to field goals.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−2.2%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −31.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Middle Tennessee has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Defensethrowing it#133projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#124projected
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#123projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MTSU Elo 1277, KENN Elo 1327 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MTSU +1.4 (47% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
KENN64th90thMTSUMTSU53rd85thKENNThrough the air
KENN64th41stMTSUMTSU75th55thKENNOn the ground
KENN53rd91stMTSUMTSU78th93rdKENNStaying on the field
KENN78th53rdMTSUMTSU119th18thKENNTaking care of it
KENN75th76thMTSUMTSU21st22ndKENN
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| KENN | MTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -13.5 (#118) | CORE overall | -9.7 (#108) |
| -5 / +8 | offense / defense | -6 / +4 |
| 1.70 | points / drive | 1.82 |
| 3.00 | allowed / drive | 1.27 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 36% |
| +5 | pass over expected | +14 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Kennesaw State vs. Middle Tennessee?
Gridpex's model favors Kennesaw State with a 53% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Kennesaw State vs. Middle Tennessee?
The model projects Kennesaw State by 1.4.
What time is Kennesaw State vs. Middle Tennessee and what channel is it on?
Wed, Oct 28, 7:00 PM ET, at Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →