Wisconsin vs. Iowa Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Iowa gets at Wisconsin: 36th on first and second down, against a unit 110th on early downs defensively. Wisconsin projects no clear way in against Iowa. Iowa is also 11th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 84th.
How
IOWAattacks
WIS
- 1
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
IOWA#36 of 138WIS#110 of 138 - 2
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
IOWA#11 of 138WIS#84 of 138 - 3
Lean on the run
moving the ball on the ground · projected
IOWA#27 of 138WIS#91 of 138
The two teams
Wisconsin
Wisconsin is in year 4 under Luke Fickell, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 16th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 125th at moving the ball on the ground, and they are 125th on first and second down.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−0.5%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −28.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Wisconsin has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#16projected
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#30projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground#125projected
- Offensefirst and second down#125projected
- Offensethrowing it#123projected
Iowa
Iowa is in year 13 under Kirk Ferentz, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 3rd at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 138th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it less often than his peers do from the same spots (−4.5%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −43.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Iowa has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#3projected
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#6projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#8projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#138projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (IOWA Elo 1845, WIS Elo 1475 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects IOWA -9.2 (72% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
WIS67th10thIOWAIOWA83rd81stWISThrough the air
WIS97th7thIOWAIOWA92nd63rdWISOn the ground
WIS85th19thIOWAIOWA47th87thWISStaying on the field
WIS68th22ndIOWAIOWA87th39thWISTaking care of it
WIS48th76thIOWAIOWA21st127thWIS
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesWisconsin leads 49–48–2 · Iowa has won 4 straight · 33% have been one-possession games
| WIS | IOWA | |
|---|---|---|
| -0.8 (#73) | CORE overall | +16.6 (#22) |
| -6 / -6 | offense / defense | +2 / -14 |
| 0.67 | points / drive | 2.08 |
| 3.78 | allowed / drive | 0.25 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| -11 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Wisconsin vs. Iowa?
Gridpex's model favors Iowa with a 72% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Wisconsin vs. Iowa?
The model projects Iowa by 9.2.
What time is Wisconsin vs. Iowa and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Kinnick Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →