UAB vs. South Florida Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where UAB gets at South Florida: 7th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 118th at keeping everything in front of them. Where South Florida gets at UAB: 24th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 134th at stuffing runs at the line. South Florida is also 37th at throwing it, against a unit 134th.
How
UABattacks
USF
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
UAB#7 of 138USF#118 of 138
HowUSFattacksUAB
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
USF#24 of 138UAB#134 of 138 - 2
Throw it
throwing it · projected
USF#37 of 138UAB#134 of 138 - 3
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
USF#44 of 138UAB#136 of 138
The two teams
UAB
UAB is in year 1 under Alex Mortensen. The strengths are offensive, led by 7th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 136th on early downs defensively, and they are 135th at holding teams to field goals.
UAB has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#7projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensefirst and second down#136projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#135projected
- Defensethe push the line gets#135projected
South Florida
South Florida is in year 1 under Brian Hartline. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 24th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 118th at keeping everything in front of them.
South Florida has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#24projected
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#24projected
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#26projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#118projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USF Elo 1676, UAB Elo 1403 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USF -10.4 (74% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
UAB111th84thUSFUSF113th133rdUABThrough the air
UAB130th83rdUSFUSF112th3rdUABOn the ground
UAB122nd101stUSFUSF110th22ndUABStaying on the field
UAB22nd50thUSFUSF52nd125thUABTaking care of it
UAB21st22ndUSFUSF1st127thUAB
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UAB | USF | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.0 (#92) | CORE overall | +5.3 (#51) |
| +0 / +5 | offense / defense | +3 / -3 |
| 2.63 | points / drive | 2.77 |
| 3.00 | allowed / drive | 2.00 |
| 6% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| -17 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win UAB vs. South Florida?
Gridpex's model favors South Florida with a 74% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for UAB vs. South Florida?
The model projects South Florida by 10.4.
What time is UAB vs. South Florida and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Raymond James Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →