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Watchlist

Week 3 of 2026, ranked by a score whose parts are all shown. No term rewards a program for being famous — if a Tuesday MAC game outranks the night game, that is the answer.

Week01234567891011121315

The five

  1. 1
    #17SMUat#24Louisville
    Sat, Sep 19 · 3:30 PM ETL&N Federal Credit Union Stadiummodel SMU by 2.4market -1.5
    • Projected closeness 28/35
    • Team quality 24/30
    • Stakes 13/15
    • Points on the board 3/10
    69
    score
  2. 2
    FloridaatAuburn
    Sat, Sep 19 · 7:00 PM ETJordan-Hare Stadiummodel Auburn by 0.3market +2.5
    • Projected closeness 34/35
    • Team quality 23/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 5/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    68
    score
  3. 3
    #8LSUat#9Ole MissMagnolia Bowl
    Sat, Sep 19 · 7:30 PM ETVaught-Hemingway Stadiummodel Ole Miss by 11.3market +2.5
    • Projected closeness 11/35
    • Team quality 26/30
    • Stakes 15/15
    • History 9/10
    • Points on the board 1/10
    63
    score
  4. 4
    UABatLouisiana
    Sat, Sep 19 · 8:00 PM ETCajun Fieldmodel Louisiana by 0.3
    • Projected closeness 34/35
    • Team quality 10/30
    • Points on the board 4/10
    48
    score
  5. 5
    Arizona StatevsKansas
    Sat, Sep 19 · 12:00 PM ETWembley Stadiummodel Arizona State by 4.2market +5.5
    • Projected closeness 23/35
    • Team quality 16/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • Points on the board 4/10
    46
    score

The rest of the slate

  1. 6
    Florida Stateat#12Alabama
    Sat, Sep 19 · 3:30 PM ETBryant-Denny Stadiummodel Alabama by 9.0market -17.5
    • Projected closeness 14/35
    • Team quality 22/30
    • Stakes 6/15
    • Points on the board 2/10
    45
    score
  2. 7
    #22Houstonat#13Texas Tech
    Fri, Sep 18 · 8:00 PM ETJones AT&T Stadiummodel Texas Tech by 19.4market -9.5
    • Projected closeness 5/35
    • Team quality 20/30
    • Stakes 14/15
    • History 4/10
    44
    score
  3. 8
    Mississippi StateatSouth Carolina
    Sat, Sep 19 · 4:15 PM ETWilliams-Brice Stadiummodel South Carolina by 10.1market -4.5
    • Projected closeness 13/35
    • Team quality 22/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 2/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    44
    score
  4. 9
    North TexasatTexas State
    Sat, Sep 19 · 12:00 PM ETBobcat Stadium (TX)model Texas State by 4.7
    • Projected closeness 22/35
    • Team quality 16/30
    • Points on the board 4/10
    42
    score
  5. 10
    NevadaatMiddle Tennessee
    Sat, Sep 19 · 7:00 PM ETJohnny "Red" Floyd Stadiummodel Middle Tennessee by 1.3
    • Projected closeness 31/35
    • Team quality 7/30
    • Points on the board 3/10
    41
    score
  6. 11
    East CarolinaatOld Dominion
    Sat, Sep 19 · 6:00 PM ETS.B. Ballard Stadiummodel Old Dominion by 2.8
    • Projected closeness 27/35
    • Team quality 9/30
    • Points on the board 4/10
    39
    score
  7. 12
    #7MiamiatWake Forest
    Fri, Sep 18 · 7:30 PM ETAllegacy Federal Credit Union Stadiummodel Miami by 17.2market +22.5
    • Projected closeness 6/35
    • Team quality 21/30
    • Stakes 8/15
    • History 1/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    39
    score
  8. 13
    #2GeorgiaatArkansas
    Sat, Sep 19 · 12:00 PM ETRazorback Stadiummodel Georgia by 19.0market +17.5
    • Projected closeness 5/35
    • Team quality 22/30
    • Stakes 9/15
    • History 1/10
    • Points on the board 2/10
    39
    score
  9. 14
    Utah Stateat#20Utah
    Sat, Sep 19 · 3:30 PM ETRice-Eccles Stadiummodel Utah by 11.1
    • Projected closeness 12/35
    • Team quality 15/30
    • Stakes 6/15
    • History 3/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    39
    score
  10. 15
    Virginia TechatMaryland
    Sat, Sep 19 · 7:30 PM ETSECU Stadiummodel Maryland by 6.1market +3
    • Projected closeness 19/35
    • Team quality 12/30
    • History 4/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    38
    score
  11. 16
    North Dakota StateatSacramento State
    Sat, Sep 19 · 10:30 PM ETHornet Stadiummodel Sacramento State by 6.8
    • Projected closeness 18/35
    • Team quality 16/30
    • Points on the board 3/10
    37
    score
  12. 17
    TempleatToledo
    Sat, Sep 19 · 3:00 PM ETGlass Bowlmodel Toledo by 4.8
    • Projected closeness 22/35
    • Team quality 10/30
    • History 1/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    37
    score
  13. 18
    NC StateatVanderbilt
    Sat, Sep 19 · 12:45 PM ETFirstBank Stadiummodel Vanderbilt by 9.2
    • Projected closeness 14/35
    • Team quality 19/30
    • Points on the board 3/10
    37
    score
  14. 19
    New Mexicoat#11Oklahoma
    Sat, Sep 19 · 7:30 PM ETMemorial Stadium (Norman, OK)model Oklahoma by 19.5
    • Projected closeness 5/35
    • Team quality 22/30
    • Stakes 7/15
    • Points on the board 3/10
    36
    score
  15. 20
    Michigan Stateat#3Notre Dame
    Sat, Sep 19 · 7:30 PM ETNotre Dame Stadiummodel Notre Dame by 27.6market -29.5
    • Projected closeness 2/35
    • Team quality 19/30
    • Stakes 7/15
    • History 4/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    36
    score
  16. 21
    StanfordatDuke
    Sat, Sep 19 · 4:00 PM ETWallace Wade Stadiummodel Duke by 9.1
    • Projected closeness 14/35
    • Team quality 13/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • Points on the board 5/10
    34
    score
  17. 22
    MarshallatMissouri State
    Sat, Sep 19 · 6:30 PM ETPlaster Sports Complexmodel Marshall by 3.8
    • Projected closeness 24/35
    • Team quality 6/30
    • Points on the board 4/10
    34
    score
  18. 23
    UTSAat#4Texas
    Sat, Sep 19 · 8:00 PM ETDKR-Texas Memorial Stadiummodel Texas by 24.9market -29.5
    • Projected closeness 3/35
    • Team quality 21/30
    • Stakes 7/15
    • Points on the board 3/10
    34
    score
  19. 24
    SyracuseatPittsburgh
    Thu, Sep 17 · 7:30 PM ETAcrisure Stadiummodel Pittsburgh by 11.1market -10
    • Projected closeness 12/35
    • Team quality 11/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 4/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    34
    score
  20. 25
    James MadisonatSan Diego State
    Sat, Sep 19 · 10:00 PM ETSnapdragon Stadiummodel San Diego State by 12.8
    • Projected closeness 10/35
    • Team quality 20/30
    • Points on the board 4/10
    34
    score
  21. 26
    Miami (OH)atCincinnatiVictory Bell
    Sat, Sep 19 · 3:30 PM ETTQL Stadiummodel Cincinnati by 10.6
    • Projected closeness 12/35
    • Team quality 7/30
    • History 10/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    33
    score
  22. 27
    OhioatSouth Alabama
    Sat, Sep 19 · 7:00 PM ETHancock Whitney Stadiummodel Ohio by 4.6
    • Projected closeness 22/35
    • Team quality 7/30
    • Points on the board 4/10
    33
    score
  23. 28
    Kentuckyat#10Texas A&M
    Sat, Sep 19 · 3:30 PM ETKyle Fieldmodel Texas A&M by 25.5market -15.5
    • Projected closeness 3/35
    • Team quality 19/30
    • Stakes 8/15
    • Points on the board 3/10
    33
    score
  24. 29
    TulaneatKansas State
    Sat, Sep 19 · 12:00 PM ETBill Snyder Family Stadiummodel Kansas State by 14.9
    • Projected closeness 8/35
    • Team quality 19/30
    • Points on the board 4/10
    31
    score
  25. 30
    UConnatSouthern Miss
    Sat, Sep 19 · 7:00 PM ETM. M. Roberts Stadiummodel Southern Miss by 7.4
    • Projected closeness 17/35
    • Team quality 10/30
    • Points on the board 4/10
    30
    score
  26. 31
    PurdueatUCLA
    Sat, Sep 19 · 11:00 PM ETRose Bowlmodel UCLA by 8.5
    • Projected closeness 15/35
    • Team quality 8/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • Points on the board 4/10
    30
    score
  27. 32
    Georgia SouthernatJacksonville State
    Sat, Sep 19 · 7:00 PM ETAmFirst Stadiummodel Jacksonville State by 7.5
    • Projected closeness 17/35
    • Team quality 10/30
    • Points on the board 3/10
    29
    score
  28. 33
    #15BYUatColorado State
    Sat, Sep 19 · 7:30 PM ETCanvas Stadiummodel BYU by 24.2
    • Projected closeness 3/35
    • Team quality 12/30
    • Stakes 6/15
    • History 4/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    29
    score
  29. 34
    Louisiana TechatBaylor
    Sat, Sep 19 · 4:00 PM ETMcLane Stadiummodel Baylor by 12.1
    • Projected closeness 11/35
    • Team quality 14/30
    • Points on the board 4/10
    29
    score
  30. 35
    Kennesaw Stateat#18Tennessee
    Sat, Sep 19 · 7:45 PM ETNeyland Stadiummodel Tennessee by 20.4
    • Projected closeness 5/35
    • Team quality 14/30
    • Stakes 6/15
    • Points on the board 4/10
    28
    score
  31. 36
    West Virginiavs#25Virginia
    Sat, Sep 19 · 7:30 PM ETBank of America Stadiummodel Virginia by 25.6market -9.5
    • Projected closeness 3/35
    • Team quality 13/30
    • Stakes 5/15
    • History 3/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    28
    score
  32. 37
    #14USCatRutgers
    Sat, Sep 19 · 3:30 PM ETSHI Stadiummodel USC by 21.5
    • Projected closeness 4/35
    • Team quality 15/30
    • Stakes 8/15
    • Points on the board 1/10
    28
    score
  33. 38
    Troyat#23Missouri
    Sat, Sep 19 · 7:00 PM ETMemorial Stadiummodel Missouri by 27.4
    • Projected closeness 2/35
    • Team quality 16/30
    • Stakes 5/15
    • Points on the board 4/10
    28
    score
  34. 39
    Buffaloat#16Penn State
    Sat, Sep 19 · 12:00 PM ETBeaver Stadiummodel Penn State by 25.4
    • Projected closeness 3/35
    • Team quality 15/30
    • Stakes 6/15
    • Points on the board 4/10
    27
    score
  35. 40
    WyomingatCentral Michigan
    Sat, Sep 19 · 1:00 PM ETKelly/Shorts Stadiummodel Central Michigan by 5.3
    • Projected closeness 21/35
    • Team quality 3/30
    • Points on the board 3/10
    27
    score

How the score is built

Projected closeness — 35 points
Decays exponentially in the model’s projected margin: a pick’em is the full 35, a touchdown favorite about half, three scores nothing. The largest term, because a blowout is a blowout no matter who is playing.
Team quality — 30 points
Elo percentile of both sides, with two thirds of the weight on the weaker team. A top-five side hosting a bad one is not a good game, and an average of the two would claim it was.
Stakes — 15 points
Poll position going into the week, plus a share for a conference game. Two ranked teams take most of it; the higher the pair, the more.
Rivalry history — 10 points
From the all-time series: a named trophy game, the length of the series, and whether the all-time ledger has stayed close.
Points on the board — 10 points
The projected total, from the drive-sim. A 31-28 is better television than a 10-7 and that is allowed to matter a little — but only a little, or the whole list becomes bad defenses.

There is no term for brand, television window or network. A watchability score that rewards blue bloods for existing is a popularity ranking wearing a lab coat.