Monmouth vs. Western Michigan: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MONMTeam statsWMU
- Q4 0:15MONMNazir Treadwell 1 Yd Run (Sky Sholder Kick)14–49
- Q4 4:11WMURyan Brotherton 21 Yd pass from Trey Petty (Dieter Kelly Kick)7–49
- Q3 3:55WMUJalen Buckley 1 Yd Run (Dieter Kelly Kick)7–42
- Q3 9:10WMUBaylin Brooks 12 Yd pass from Broc Lowry (Dieter Kelly Kick)7–35
- Q3 11:20MONMTra Neal 5 Yd pass from Frankie Weaver (Sky Sholder Kick)7–28
- Q3 14:03WMUJalen Buckley 11 Yd Run (Dieter Kelly Kick)0–28
- Q2 4:47WMUJalen Buckley 1 Yd Run (Dieter Kelly Kick)0–21
- Q2 10:53WMUEgypt Nelson 23 Yd pass from Broc Lowry (Dieter Kelly Kick)0–14
- Q1 4:36WMUBaylin Brooks 13 Yd pass from Broc Lowry (Dieter Kelly Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = MONM ahead, below = WMU ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
- PassFrankie Weaver 28/46, 273 YDS, 1 TD
- RushElijah Jennings 19 CAR, 87 YDS
- RecTra Neal 7 REC, 106 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBroc Lowry 14/20, 212 YDS, 3 TD
- RushBroc Lowry 4 CAR, 40 YDS
- RecAveion Chenault 4 REC, 101 YDS
FAQ
What was the final score of Monmouth vs. Western Michigan?
Monmouth 14, Western Michigan 49.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WMU) was correct.
| MONM | WMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 431 | Total yards | 414 |
| 273 | Passing yards | 266 |
| 158 | Rushing yards | 148 |
| 27 | First downs | 24 |
| 11-20 | 3rd down | 4-9 |
| 1-5 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 28/46 | Comp/Att | 18/25 |
| 5.9 | Yards per pass | 10.6 |
| 3.6 | Yards per rush | 4.6 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-34 | Penalties | 8-68 |
| 31:52 | Possession | 28:08 |
- Q4 0:15MONMNazir Treadwell 1 Yd Run (Sky Sholder Kick)14–49
- Q4 4:11WMURyan Brotherton 21 Yd pass from Trey Petty (Dieter Kelly Kick)7–49
- Q3 3:55WMUJalen Buckley 1 Yd Run (Dieter Kelly Kick)7–42
- Q3 9:10WMUBaylin Brooks 12 Yd pass from Broc Lowry (Dieter Kelly Kick)7–35
- Q3 11:20MONMTra Neal 5 Yd pass from Frankie Weaver (Sky Sholder Kick)7–28
- Q3 14:03WMUJalen Buckley 11 Yd Run (Dieter Kelly Kick)0–28
- Q2 4:47WMUJalen Buckley 1 Yd Run (Dieter Kelly Kick)0–21
- Q2 10:53WMUEgypt Nelson 23 Yd pass from Broc Lowry (Dieter Kelly Kick)0–14
- Q1 4:36WMUBaylin Brooks 13 Yd pass from Broc Lowry (Dieter Kelly Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects WMU -24.1 (92% to win) — 4.4 points clear of MONM's market line of -28.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →