Tulane vs. Charlotte Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Tulane gets at Charlotte: 45th at staying on schedule through the air, against a unit 137th at keeping opponents off schedule through the air. Charlotte projects no clear way in against Tulane. Tulane is also 56th in the push up front, against a unit 134th.
How
TULNattacks
CLT
- 1
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
TULN#45 of 138CLT#137 of 138 - 2
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected
TULN#56 of 138CLT#134 of 138 - 3
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
TULN#60 of 138CLT#136 of 138
The two teams
Tulane
Tulane runs it: Will Hall's offenses have been run-leaning across 4 seasons. The way in is 108th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−1.6%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −26.8% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Tulane has played 2 games against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#108projected
Charlotte
Charlotte is in year 2 under Tim Albin, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 5th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 138th at running it, and they are 138th at shutting down the ground game.
On fourth down he goes for it less often than his peers do from the same spots (−3.4%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −35.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Charlotte has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#5projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#17projected
Projected soft spots
- Offenserunning it#138projected
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#138projected
- Defensefirst and second down#138projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CLT Elo 1168, TULN Elo 1528 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CLT +10.2 (26% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
TULN55th128thCLTCLT56th105thTULNThrough the air
TULN88th78thCLTCLT56th80thTULNOn the ground
TULN103rd121stCLTCLT62nd131stTULNStaying on the field
TULN99th122ndCLTCLT55th131stTULNTaking care of it
TULN21st109thCLTCLT74th109thTULN
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| TULN | CLT | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.8 (#66) | CORE overall | -16.1 (#124) |
| -1 / -1 | offense / defense | -11 / +5 |
| 1.41 | points / drive | 1.00 |
| 1.95 | allowed / drive | 4.22 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -4 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Tulane vs. Charlotte?
Gridpex's model favors Tulane with a 74% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Tulane vs. Charlotte?
The model projects Tulane by 10.2.
What time is Tulane vs. Charlotte and what channel is it on?
Fri, Oct 30, 7:00 PM ET, at Jerry Richardson Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →