@ Central Michigan · Wk 3Win prob 37%Model +5.3Schedule & Results
CSUColorado StateL13-35✓Wk 2vsNOCONorthern ColoradoW21-13✓Wk 3@CMUCentral Michigan+5.337%Wk 4vs
HAWHawai'i+15.817%Wk 5@
NDSUNorth Dakota State+10.425%Wk 6@
SJSUSan José State-6.869%Wk 7vs
NIUNorthern Illinois-11.478%Wk 8vs
AFAir Force+7.432%Wk 10@
UNLVUNLV+19.611%Wk 11@
UTEPUTEP-3.960%Wk 12vs
UNMNew Mexico+11.025%Wk 13vs
CONNUConn+2.444%Team Leaders
Tyler HughesPassing279 yds · 2 TD · 3 INT
Samuel HarrisRushing111 yds · 1 TD · 4.1 avg
Jake WilsonReceiving5 rec · 86 yds · 0 TD
Ethan StuhlsatzTackles26 tackles · 1 TFL · 0.5 sacks
Latest on Wyoming
All news →Hauss Hejny was responsible for 30 of Colorado State's 35 points
Wyoming's edge rides on a quarterback nobody has seen
Roster · 112 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tyler Hughes | QB | SR | 6'0" | 214 | Marietta, GA |
| 7 | Mason Drube | QB | FR | 6'3" | 220 | Gillette, WY |
| 14 | Landon Sims | QB | JR | 6'3" | 217 | Evergreen, AL |
| 15 | Taylor Hasselbeck | QB | FR | 6'2" | 191 | Nashville, TN |
| 34 | Tyler Franklin | QB | FR | 6'3" | 190 | — |
| 1 | Samuel Harris | RB | SO | 5'11" | 202 | Cibolo, TX |
| 8 | Markell Holman | RB | SR | 6'0" | 214 | Philadelphia, PA |
| 20 | Jaden Lawrence | RB | FR | 5'10" | 203 | Parker, CO |
| 21 | Nico Hamilton | RB | SO | 5'10" | 210 | Austin, TX |
| 22 | Diore Hubbard | RB | SO | 5'10" | 188 | Gahanna, OH |
| 26 | Dontae Burch | RB | SO | 5'7" | 196 | Kansas City, MO |
| 28 | Nikos Varelas | RB | JR | 5'10" | 190 | San Antonio, TX |
| 29 | Ryken Banks | RB | FR | 6'0" | 206 | Parker, CO |
| 2 | Eric Richardson | WR | SR | 5'11" | 181 | Saint Robert, MO |
| 3 | Deion DeBlanc | WR | SO | 5'10" | 185 | Houston, TX |
| 4 | Ke'Lyn Washom | WR | FR | 6'1" | 205 | Houston, TX |
| 5 | Justin Popovich | WR | SR | 6'3" | 203 | Louisville, KY |
| 9 | Jackson Holman | WR | JR | 6'3" | 205 | Irvine, CA |
| 11 | Jayden Williams (WR) | WR | FR | 5'8" | 171 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 12 | Bricen Brantley | WR | JR | 6'3" | 190 | Houston, TX |
| 13 | Pierre Jackson | WR | FR | 5'11" | 172 | Chicago, IL |
| 16 | Joaquin Sandoval | WR | SO | 5'10" | 184 | Glenwood Springs, CO |
| 19 | Charlie Coenen | WR | SR | 6'0" | 195 | Chanhassen, MN |
| 23 | Tyler Nystrom | WR | SO | 6'2" | 189 | Arden Hills, MN |
| 24 | Jarell Gary | WR | FR | 5'11" | 196 | Round Rock, TX |
| 81 | Jordan Styles | WR | FR | 6'0" | 207 | The Woodlands, TX |
| 44 | Tyler Hampton | TE | SR | 6'4" | 247 | Huntington Beach, CA |
| 80 | Tyler Siddons | TE | SR | 6'5" | 254 | Salem, AR |
| 82 | Gage Brook | TE | JR | 6'4" | 249 | Fort Collins, CO |
| 83 | Kyle Frendt | TE | SO | 6'5" | 240 | Woodbury, MN |
| 85 | Ishmael Muhammad | TE | FR | 6'3" | 226 | Dallas, TX |
| 86 | Colin Ford | TE | FR | 6'4" | 232 | Naperville, IL |
| 87 | Isaac Schoenfeld | TE | SR | 6'5" | 260 | Rock Springs, WY |
| 88 | Landon Pace | TE | FR | 6'3" | 247 | St. Louis, MO |
| 89 | Jake Wilson | TE | SO | 6'5" | 243 | Montgomery, TX |
| 50 | Giovanni Panozzo | OL | SO | 6'5" | 314 | Arvada, CO |
| 51 | Jason Maciejczak | OL | JR | 6'3" | 310 | Pierre, SD |
| 52 | Chandler Donaway | OL | SR | 6'1" | 305 | Klein, TX |
| 54 | Jonathan Pearcy | OL | FR | 6'3" | 301 | Liberty, MO |
| 55 | Kalvin Janssen | OL | FR | 6'3" | 307 | Gretna, NE |
| 60 | Grant Lott | OL | FR | 6'4" | 300 | Saint Peters, MO |
| 62 | Spencer Rathbun | OL | SO | 6'4" | 275 | Denver, CO |
| 63 | Braylon Jenkins | OL | SO | 6'4" | 315 | West Des Moines, IA |
| 64 | Brandt Rice | OL | JR | 6'5" | 305 | Wausau, WI |
| 65 | Nathan Geiger | OL | JR | 6'5" | 303 | Highlands Ranch, CO |
| 66 | Johnathan Bush | OL | FR | 6'2" | 310 | Whitehouse, TX |
| 68 | Jackson Garrett | OL | FR | 6'3" | 310 | Cheyenne, WY |
| 70 | Rex Johnsen | OL | SR | 6'5" | 308 | Logan, IA |
| 72 | Pierce Decker | OL | FR | 6'7" | 295 | Fort Collins, CO |
| 73 | Caleb Hall | OL | SO | 6'5" | 305 | Carmichael, CA |
| 74 | Tariq Miller | OL | FR | 6'3" | 302 | Leon, IA |
| 75 | Cooper Lawson | OL | FR | 6'4" | 300 | Afton, WY |
| 77 | Josiah Petaia | OL | JR | 6'3" | 313 | Long Beach, CA |
| 71 | Jake Davies | OT | JR | 6'7" | 308 | Yorkville, IL |
| 76 | Quinn Grovesteen-Matchey | OT | JR | 6'6" | 310 | Evansville, WI |
| 11 | Esaia Bogar | DE | SR | 6'2" | 255 | Rancho Cucamonga, CA |
| 21 | Jack Dunkley | DE | SR | 6'4" | 253 | Penndel, PA |
| 39 | Eltoum Murgus | DE | SO | 6'3" | 220 | Kansas City, MO |
| 47 | Jason Handy | DE | FR | 6'4" | 247 | Cedar Park, TX |
| 51 | Thaddeus Gianaris | DE | SR | 6'2" | 252 | Park Ridge, IL |
| 55 | Kevin Sjogren | DE | JR | 6'5" | 251 | Palisade, CO |
| 58 | Jordan Turnbull | DE | JR | 6'5" | 256 | Evergreen, CO |
| 90 | Cade Brook | DE | FR | 6'3" | 256 | Aurora, CO |
| 94 | Beck Haswell | DE | FR | 6'3" | 252 | Sheridan, WY |
| 99 | Donnie Wingate | DE | SR | 6'3" | 251 | Choctaw, OK |
| 53 | Tegen Seeds | DL | SO | 6'0" | 302 | Douglas, WY |
| 97 | Alex Haswell | DL | SO | 6'5" | 295 | Sheridan, WY |
| 44 | Ja'Quan Redfern | DT | JR | 6'3" | 288 | Vineland, NJ |
| 50 | Tanielu Maafala-Barbasa | DT | FR | 6'1" | 281 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 54 | MacGregor Byers | DT | FR | 6'4" | 271 | Houston, TX |
| 68 | Cody Crawford | DT | JR | 6'1" | 290 | Casper, WY |
| 91 | Xavier Jackson | DT | FR | 6'2" | 289 | O' Fallon, MO |
| 92 | Dante Drake | DT | JR | 6'3" | 296 | Robinson, TX |
| 93 | Mohanad Nahhas | DT | JR | 6'3" | 293 | Latham, NY |
| 95 | Caleb Robinson | DT | SR | 6'2" | 298 | Omaha, NE |
| 96 | Henry Rehberg | DT | FR | 6'2" | 287 | Omaha, NE |
| 98 | Jayden Williams (DT) | DT | JR | 6'3" | 294 | Bryan, TX |
| 16 | Karson Butts | LB | SO | 6'2" | 237 | Wichita, KS |
| 26 | Gary Rutherford | LB | SO | 6'1" | 237 | Peoria, IL |
| 28 | Boston Gable | LB | FR | 6'0" | 216 | Gering, NE |
| 33 | Parker Moore | LB | FR | 6'2" | 238 | Lawrence, KS |
| 34 | Steven Perez | LB | FR | 6'1" | 231 | Wilmington, CA |
| 40 | Dante Bruley | LB | FR | 6'1" | 232 | Chandler, AZ |
| 41 | Mason Wright | LB | FR | 6'3" | 242 | Parkville, MO |
| 42 | Ethan Stuhlsatz | LB | SR | 6'4" | 237 | Wichita, KS |
| 46 | Dash Bauman | LB | SO | 6'2" | 237 | Lincoln, NE |
| 0 | Tyson Shamsid-Deen | CB | SO | 5'10" | 180 | San Antonio, TX |
| 3 | Ian Bell | CB | JR | 6'1" | 190 | La Verne, CA |
| 7 | Junus McGraw | CB | JR | 6'0" | 191 | Anchorage, AK |
| 8 | Logan Mackey | CB | JR | 5'10" | 193 | Houston, TX |
| 9 | BJ Inmon | CB | JR | 5'11" | 190 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 12 | Kendall Griffin | CB | FR | 5'11" | 190 | Chicago, IL |
| 15 | David Leonard | DB | SO | 5'11" | 188 | St. Louis, MO |
| 24 | Drew Jackson | DB | SO | 5'11" | 187 | Cheyenne, WY |
| 1 | Desman Hearns | S | SR | 6'0" | 190 | Clearwater, FL |
| 2 | Travis Franklin Jr. | S | SR | 5'11" | 185 | Riverdale, GA |
| 4 | Jett Vincent | S | JR | 6'2" | 203 | Grinnell, KS |
| 5 | Brooklyn Cheek | S | SO | 6'1" | 205 | Oakdale, CA |
| 6 | Kaiden Kimble-Turner | S | FR | 5'10" | 197 | Kuna, ID |
| 13 | Elvin Ampofo | S | FR | 6'0" | 182 | Aurora, CO |
| 18 | Da'Marion Brownlee | S | JR | 6'1" | 210 | Dallas, TX |
| 19 | Nathanial Watson | S | JR | 5'10" | 180 | Littleton, CO |
| 20 | Lafai Purcell | S | JR | 5'11" | 185 | Frederick, CO |
| 22 | Jaden DaCosta | S | JR | 6'0" | 205 | Los Angeles, CA |
| 23 | Jones Thomas | S | JR | 6'2" | 205 | Fort Collins, CO |
| 25 | Therman Williams | S | FR | 5'10" | 186 | Riverside, CA |
| 47 | Erik Sandvik | PK | JR | 6'1" | 201 | Steamboat Springs, CO |
| 99 | Keelan Anderson | PK | SO | 5'10" | 178 | Cheyenne, WY |
| 18 | Bart Edmiston | P | SR | 6'0" | 200 | Ocean Springs, MS |
| 43 | Gavyn Helm | P | SO | 6'3" | 209 | Windsor, CO |
| 45 | Charlie Houston | LS | FR | 5'10" | 206 | Rowlett, TX |
| 49 | Nathan Curry | LS | SR | 6'0" | 206 | Murfreesboro, TN |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Wyoming is in year 3 under Jay Sawvel. The way in is 128th at surviving second and twelve, and they are 128th at turning trips inside the 40 into points.
Wyoming has played 2 games against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#128projected
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#128projected
- Offensethrowing it#127projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 3.24#45
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.25 / 0.69
- Power / stuff (off)
- 100.0% / 17.9%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 15.4%#75
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 9.2% / 6.2%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | -0.03#99 | 0.29#54 | 0.17#125 |
| Defense | -0.03#76 | 0.14#71 | 0.61#103 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.0819th
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.1624th
- Offense success rate42%37th
- Defense success rate allowed42%28th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs47%39th
- Offense success — passing downs28%28th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs48%26th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs31%31st
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness0.984th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.266th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.817th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.725th
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.269th
- Defense line yards allowed2.841st
- Offense highlight yards0.6928th
- Defense highlight yards allowed1.131st
- Offense power success1.099th
- Defense power success allowed1.05th
- Offense stuff rate0.1847th
- Defense stuff rate0.1834th
Third down
- Third down conversion33%21st
- Third down distance faced8.28th
- Third down conversion allowed41%38th
- Third down distance forced7.036th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half-0.0129th
- Net success rate — second half0.0339th
Drives
- Points per drive1.020th
- Points per drive allowed3.517th
- Average starting field position2736th
- Opponent starting field position2943rd
- Available yards gained35%20th
- Available yards allowed58%32nd
- Scoring opportunities per drive70%29th
- Scoring opportunities allowed100%12th
- Points per scoring opportunity1.416th
- Points allowed per opportunity3.528th
- Three-and-out rate50%7th
- Three-and-outs forced40%88th
Roster
- Returning usage28%30th
- Returning EPA36.821st
- Team talent composite5288th
- Recruiting class rank11418th
- Recruiting class points17018th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.143 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.
Season Signature
1-1 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 10 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 38.0%
- Expected, given the spots
- 53.7%
- Over expected
- -15.7
- Fourth down vs peers
- +25
- Fourth down vs the model
- +0
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Wyoming is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Wyoming in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 50% | 1.0 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 4-8 | 2-6 | 33% | 3.8 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 3-9 | 2-5 | 25% | 3.9 | -0.9 |
| 2023 | 9-4 | 5-3 | 69% | 7.3 | +1.7 |
| 2022 | 7-6 | 5-3 | 54% | 6.0 | +1.0 |
| 2021 | 7-6 | 2-6 | 54% | 7.6 | -0.6 |
| 2020 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 33% | 3.1 | -1.1 |
| 2019 | 8-5 | 4-4 | 62% | 7.2 | +0.8 |
| 2018 | 6-6 | 4-4 | 50% | 6.2 | -0.2 |
| 2017 | 8-5 | 5-3 | 62% | 6.6 | +1.4 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
0-1 so far, projected to finish 5.6-6.5. Wins the Mountain West in 2.7%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count.
Win out and it is 44%. One bid goes to the best champion outside the four power leagues, so running the table only enters them into that argument.
down 0.6 points since preseason — lost 13-35 to Colorado State against an expected margin of −2, so −20.4 against the number.
- At 1 loss they are 44% where the average Mountain West team is 55%.
- The Mountain West takes 0.18 bids in an average season.
- One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 0.1% of seasons, having won their league in 99% of those.
Wyoming’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk12vs New Mexico0.8
- wk10at UNLV0.6
- wk4vs Hawai'i0.4
- wk6at San José State0.4
- wk8vs Air Force0.3
- wk3at Central Michigan0.3
Who to root for
Games Wyoming is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk5Arkansas over Texas A&M0.2
- wk9North Carolina over Miami0.2
- wk3Tulane over Kansas State0.2
- wk5Samford over UAB0.2
- wk3Rutgers over USC0.1
- wk11Rutgers over Nebraska0.1
Mountain West
0-0 in league play, projected 3.5-4.57 of 10 by title oddsThe Mountain West sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 32% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk12New Mexico at Wyoming9.9
- wk10Wyoming at UNLV7.9
- wk4Hawai'i at Wyoming4.7
- wk6Wyoming at San José State4.6
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Mountain West race →
If not the playoff, then
Wyoming is 1-1 and needs 5 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 4.6% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.
- Famous Idaho Potato Bowl9.9%
- Arizona Bowl8.9%
- Hawai'i Bowl7.9%
- New Mexico Bowl7.6%
- LA Bowl6.0%
- Cure Bowl2.2%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 3 have sent Wyoming a player since 2010 — 5 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Wyoming's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.