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Washington State

Washington State Cougars

Pac-12·0-2·
Elo
1601#37
SP+
-3.7#79
FPI
-4.3
AP
NR
Nextvs Duquesne · Wk 3
Talent #81 (630.3)Recruiting class #12891% production returning

Roster · 105 players

FR 34SO 30JR 25SR 16
#PlayerPosClHtWt
2Julian DuggerQBSO6'3"207
12Caden PinnickQBSO6'0"192
16Gavin GrayQBFR6'3"193
17Owen EshelmanQBFR6'3"204
3Maxwell WoodsRBSO5'10"201
9Kirby VorheesRBJR5'11"215
20Leo PulalasiRBJR6'1"208
21CJ ToneyRBFR5'8"200
22Tre Hill Jr.RBFR5'10"203
24Ryan SalcedoRBFR5'9"193
25Marquez WimberlyRBFR5'9"186
0Tony FreemanWRSR5'8"174
1Daniel BloodWRSR5'11"190
4Darrius ClemonsWRSR6'3"217
6Jay PorterWRJR6'2"183
8Branden GanashamoorthyWRJR6'3"199
10Tank HawkinsWRSO5'10"180
13Ryan McKendryWRSO6'2"198
18Jevon WalkerWRJR6'3"193
80Noah WestbrookWRFR6'1"216
82Oliver BenderWRFR6'3"203
83Ethan MastellerWRFR6'5"218
84Caleb NorthcroftWRJR6'2"199
88Jordan DeesWRSO6'4"196
89Isaiah DockenWRFR6'5"219
23Trey LecknerTEJR6'3"243
27Hudson CedarlandTESR6'4"239
28Jack PedersenTESR6'5"248
81Peyton ReadTEFR6'6"237
86Beau BakerTESO6'6"251
87Cash LandauTEFR6'4"236
50Sone FalealoOLSO6'6"287
51Kalolo Ta'agaOLSO6'7"291
54Xavier ThorpeOLSO6'5"313
55Arion WilliamsOLFR6'2"283
64Jaylin CaldwellOLSR6'7"332
67Jonny LesterOLSR6'5"318
68Chris LinoOLSO6'8"316
69Kyle MartinOLJR6'3"310
70Dylan HildebrandOLFR6'4"301
71Ashton TrippOLJR6'7"307
72Gabe MillerOLSO6'4"302
73AJ OlerichOLFR6'6"278
74Maximus McCreeOLSR6'6"291
75Noah DunhamOLJR6'5"292
76Grayson CampbellOLFR6'5"291
77Nick BakkenOLSO6'5"305
78Jorden CunninghamOLFR6'5"298
79Turner BertrandOLFR6'7"308
5Michael HughesDEJR6'4"241
6Linus ZunkDESR6'6"264
9Matyus McLainDEJR6'4"263
18Barry MorrissetteDEFR6'7"261
44Luke WebbDEFR6'2"242
51Ben BeattyDESO6'2"265
56Fernando LecuonaDESO6'2"252
84Malachi WriceDESO6'4"248
94Eduwa OkundayeDESO6'2"234
96Jack ProcterDESR6'2"243
97Josh WedelDEFR6'5"272
93JaVon JosephDLFR6'3"255
34Damarjhe LewisDTSR6'3"332
52Kaden BeattyDTJR6'0"287
55Sione PasiDTSO5'11"288
58Malijah TuckerDTFR5'11"273
90Akio MartinsonDTJR6'2"304
92Ike OkaforDTFR6'3"279
95Balaam MillerDTJR6'4"289
98Jirah LeaupepeteleDTJR6'3"349
99Paul Hutson IIIDTSR6'1"258
8Nylan BrownLBJR6'0"246
10Lance McGeeLBFR6'0"218
12Carsten ReynoldsLBSO6'3"228
15DJ WarnerLBJR6'4"233
16Isaiah HungLBFR6'2"229
21Keith BrownLBSR6'1"244
29Erimus WrightLBFR6'0"215
33Gage JonesLBSO6'1"227
42Jack EllisonLBSO6'3"230
59Gavin FugateLBJR6'3"233
0CJ Solis-LumarCBSO6'1"197
2Jamarey SmithCBFR6'1"190
4Kai RapollaCBSR6'0"185
13Khamari TerrellCBSR6'1"187
22Jalil TuckerCBSR6'0"173
23Ishmael GibbsCBFR5'11"165
24Elmo WartsonCBJR6'3"180
35Nick NorrahCBFR6'2"199
26Chris Perry Jr.DBFR6'1"175
36Kenny Miller-TerryDBFR5'11"180
1Jeremiah BernardSJR6'0"196
3Jaylen ThomasSSO6'0"190
17Jshawn Frausto-RamosSJR6'0"183
19Kayo PatuSSO6'1"188
20Gaylon McNealSFR5'11"184
25Jack BalSJR6'2"191
28Kyle PetersonSSO6'0"198
30Bryson FlynnSFR6'2"204
31Trey RidleySSO6'1"194
38Jack StevensPKSO6'0"164
46Miguel ArenasPKSO6'2"206
32Max DeanPSO6'3"205
48Josh LijesenPSO6'0"231
41Sean BuresLSJR6'0"215
47Jeremy SousaLSJR6'0"212

Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank

Points / game
8.5
scoring offense
Points allowed
29.0
scoring defense
Differential
-20.5
per game
Offense
Total yards / game
204.0#138
Yards / play
3.8#135
Passing yards / game
103.5#131
Rushing yards / game
100.5#123
First downs / game
14.0#131
3rd down %
9.5%#137
4th down %
50.0%#70
Time of possession
28:12#103
Defense
Yards allowed / game
444.5#125
Yards / play allowed
6.4#124
Pass yards allowed / game
230.0#98
Rush yards allowed / game
214.5#130
3rd down % allowed
50.0%#125
Sacks
0#136
Tackles for loss
6#122
Turnovers & Discipline
Turnover margin
-2#108
Takeaways
2#76
Giveaways
4#104
Penalties / game
4.5#27
Penalty yards / game
37.5#25

Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.

Scouting Report · 2026 projection

Washington State is in year 1 under Kirby Moore. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 15th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 120th at hitting chunk plays.

Washington State has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.

Projected strengths

  • Defensehitting chunk plays
    #15
    projected
  • Defensesurviving second and twelve
    #22
    projected
  • Offensestaying on schedule through the air
    #29
    projected

Projected soft spots

  • Offensehitting chunk plays
    #120
    projected

Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.

2026 Season Projection

model win prob · 8 to play
3.76.3
projected final record (now 02)
Exp. wins left
3.7
of 8 games
Bowl odds
9%
reach 6 wins
Best odds
78%
vs Colorado State
Toughest
26%
vs San Diego State

How the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 8 games left

Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.

012345678
final winstallest bar = 29% chance
Likeliest finish 4-6 (29%)Bowl eligible 9% · marked on the axis at 6

Player Value

EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).

Unit Value — Total EPA
QBCaden Pinnick
+1.6 EPA
WRDarrius Clemons, Daniel Blood +3
+1.4 EPA
TEJack Pedersen, Beau Baker
-0.7 EPA
RBLeo Pulalasi, Kirby Vorhees +1
-8.4 EPA

Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.

Estimated NIL Market Value
ESTIMATED
EPA +1.60.026/play62 snaps

Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.

The Five Factors

ranked vs. FBS · bar = better
Efficiency (PPA)
Off-0.062nd#135
Def0.1537th#87
Explosiveness
Off0.982nd#135
Def1.2843rd#79
Field position
Off74.990th#15
Def67.984th#23
Finishing (pts/opp)
Off1.671st#136
Def2.5977th#33
Turnovers
Won 2Lost 4
Margin -2

Opponent-adjusted efficiency

EPA/play vs. schedule
Offense
Defense
Off · pass
-0.132nd#135
Off · rush
-0.0215th#118

Pass vs. rush (PPA)

Rushing
Off-0.0215th#117
Def0.2116th#116
Passing
Off-0.131st#136
Def0.1758th#58

Trenches & disruption

Line yards (off)
3.14#61
2nd-level / open-field
1.11 / 0.47
Power / stuff (off)
0.0% / 21.3%
Havoc — total (def)
10.0%#135
Havoc — front 7 / DB
6.4% / 3.6%

Standard vs. passing downs

Pro
Std downs
Off-0.05
Def-0.03
Pass downs
Off-0.09
Def0.57

PPA on each down type (off vs. def).

Opponent-adjusted by down

Pro
1st2nd3rd
Offense0.08#72-0.13#123-0.28#136
Defense0.13#1180.02#460.94#133

Elo Trajectory

@WashingtonFinal
Elo rating 16191533-86 over season

Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 46 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams

Plot these →
worst in FBSbest

Efficiency

  • Offense EPA/play-0.081st
  • Defense EPA/play allowed0.1334th
  • Offense success rate28%1st
  • Defense success rate allowed46%11th

Downs

  • Offense success — standard downs36%5th
  • Offense success — passing downs13%1st
  • Defense success allowed — standard downs52%11th
  • Defense success allowed — passing downs30%36th

Explosiveness

  • Offense explosiveness1.118th
  • Defense explosiveness allowed1.255th
  • Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.8915th
  • Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.35th

Trenches

  • Offense line yards2.825th
  • Defense line yards allowed3.121st
  • Offense highlight yards0.5418th
  • Defense highlight yards allowed2.09th
  • Offense power success0.001st
  • Defense power success allowed0.5866th
  • Offense stuff rate0.2317th
  • Defense stuff rate0.1936th

Third down

  • Third down conversion13%1st
  • Third down distance faced8.75th
  • Third down conversion allowed48%12th
  • Third down distance forced7.661st

Halves

  • Net success rate — first half-0.136th
  • Net success rate — second half-0.213rd

Drives

  • Points per drive0.467th
  • Points per drive allowed2.738th
  • Average starting field position2524th
  • Opponent starting field position3422nd
  • Available yards gained28%12th
  • Available yards allowed57%36th
  • Scoring opportunities per drive64%14th
  • Scoring opportunities allowed84%39th
  • Points per scoring opportunity0.716th
  • Points allowed per opportunity3.236th
  • Three-and-out rate36%26th
  • Three-and-outs forced21%44th

CORE

  • CORE offense-7.09th
  • CORE defense-2.563rd
  • CORE overall-4.527th

Roster

  • Returning usage98%99th
  • Returning EPA22884th
  • Team talent composite63042nd
  • Recruiting class rank1287th
  • Recruiting class points1597th

Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.

Intelligence Report

Offensive DNA

Run-first offense — below average EPA/play nationally
EPA/play
-0.060#135 · bottom 20%
Pass EPA/play
-0.131#136
Rush EPA/play
-0.016#117
Explosiveness
0.975#135
Pts/opportunity
1.67#136
Success rate
29.8%

Rush efficiency edge: 0.116 EPA/play

🛡

Defensive Identity

Coverage-heavy defense — allowing above-average EPA/play
EPA/play allowed
+0.147#87 · average
Havoc rate (total)
10.0%#135
Front-7 havoc
6.4%
DB havoc
3.6%
Big play rate allowed
1.277#79
Success rate allowed
46.9%

Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.

📊

Season Signature

8.5 PPG offense, 29.0 allowed — -20.5 margin/game
Points per game
8.5
Points allowed/game
29.0
Scoring margin/game
-20.5
Turnover margin
-2won 2 · lost 4
Production returning
91%
Talent rank (247)
#81

0-2 record through 2 games.

Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th

OFFENSE2thEXPLOSIVENESS2thFINISHING1thFIELD POS90thDEFENSE37thHAVOC2th50th100th
Offense
2th
Explosiveness
2th
Finishing
1th
Field Pos
90th
Defense
37th
Havoc
2th

Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.

CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed

Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.

Overall
-0.4
#71
Offense
-5.5
#102
Defense
-5.1
#47
Full CORE ratings →

What a possession is worth · 22 drives

MeasureOffenseDefense
Points per drive0.462.68
Starting field positionown 25.1own 33.6
Available yards28.1%56.7%
Scoring opportunities63.6%84.2%
Points per opportunity0.713.19
Three-and-out rate36.4%21.1%
Every team’s drive efficiency →

Play-calling identity

Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.

Pass rate
51.7%
Expected, given the spots
57.9%
Over expected
-6.2
Fourth down vs peers
-20
Fourth down vs the model
-43
All play-calling tendencies →

National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play

Each dot = one FBS team. Washington State is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.

ELITEDEF. FORTRESSOFF. POWERHOUSEREBUILDING-0.100.00+0.10+0.20+0.30-0.050.00+0.10+0.20Offensive EPA/play← worsebetter →Defensive EPA allowed/play← worsebetter →

Similar Programs

Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Washington State in 2026

by EPA/play distance
Central MichiganSP+ -20.0
Off EPA/play -0.048Def EPA/play +0.131Elo 1259
Match
99%
Oklahoma StateSP+ +1.1
Off EPA/play -0.018Def EPA/play +0.169Elo 1212
Match
97%
LibertySP+ -7.2
Off EPA/play -0.027Def EPA/play +0.094Elo 1697
Match
96%
Northern IllinoisSP+ -22.3
Off EPA/play -0.135Def EPA/play +0.137Elo 1266
Match
95%
Georgia TechSP+ +1.7
Off EPA/play +0.041Def EPA/play +0.141Elo 1553
Match
94%
Eastern MichiganSP+ -15.6
Off EPA/play +0.041Def EPA/play +0.115Elo 1353
Match
93%

Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.

Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 20152026 · points per game vs an average FBS team

2015: +8.2, #41 of 1282016: +6.6, #41 of 1282017: +6.8, #43 of 1302018: +8.7, #32 of 1302019: +0.7, #58 of 1302020: -16.2, #114 of 1242021: -1.2, #77 of 1302022: +0.3, #67 of 1312023: +4.8, #46 of 1332024: -2.8, #77 of 1342025: +10.0, #40 of 1362026: -0.4, #71 of 138
20152026
Now -0.4 · #71 of 138Best +10.0 in 2025Worst -16.2 in 2020

Program History

recent seasons
YearOverallConfWin %xWLuck
20260-20-0
0%
0.0-0.0
20257-61-1
54%
7.9-0.9
20248-50-1
62%
8.9-0.9
20235-72-7
42%
5.7-0.7
20227-64-5
54%
5.5+1.5
20217-66-3
54%
5.6+1.4
20201-31-3
25%
0.7+0.3
20196-73-6
46%
8.0-2.0
201811-27-2
85%
9.9+1.1
20179-46-3
69%
8.0+1.0

xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).

0.1%of 50,000 simulated 2026 seasons end with them in the field

0-2 so far, projected to finish 4.2-6.9. Wins the Pac-12 in 4.4%.

If they finish with…

24%
2 losses
1.9%
3 losses
0%
4 losses

Their chance of making it at each final loss count.

Win out and it is 24%. One bid goes to the best champion outside the four power leagues, so running the table only enters them into that argument.

down 0.8 points since preseasonlost 10-24 to Washington against an expected margin of 23, so +8.5 against the number.

  • At 3 losses they are 1.9% where the average Pac-12 team is 0.7%.
  • The Pac-12 takes 0.25 bids in an average season.
  • One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 0.1% of seasons, having won their league in 100% of those.

Washington State’s own turning points

Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.

  • wk8vs Boise State0.3
  • wk4vs Arizona0.3
  • wk9at San Diego State0.2
  • wk7at Oregon State0.2
  • wk6at Utah State0.2
  • wk12at Texas State0.2

Who to root for

Games Washington State is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.

  • wk3Oklahoma over New Mexico0.1
  • wk5Vanderbilt over Georgia0.1
  • wk12Michigan State over Oregon0.1
  • wk11Massachusetts over Toledo0.1
  • wk13Coastal Carolina over James Madison0.1
  • wk4Eastern Michigan over Lindenwood0.1
The full playoff picture →

Pac-12

0-0 in league play, projected 3.0-4.06 of 8 by title odds
4.4%
Wins the Pac-12
13%
Reaches the title game

The Pac-12 sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 38% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.

  • wk8Boise State at Washington State11.7
  • wk9Washington State at San Diego State8.1
  • wk7Washington State at Oregon State7.4
  • wk6Washington State at Utah State6.9

Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Pac-12 race →

If not the playoff, then

23%
Bowl eligible
23%
Placed in a bowl
0.1%
In the playoff
77%
Season over in November

Washington State is 0-2 and needs 6 more wins from 9 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.

  • Sun Bowl7.3%
  • Holiday Bowl6.0%
  • Las Vegas Bowl4.9%
  • Alamo Bowl3.1%
  • Independence Bowl1.4%

Every bowl, and how each one picks →

Recruiting Pipelines

since 2010

Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 4 have sent Washington State a player since 2010 — 11 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Washington State's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.

High schoolSignedDrafted
CathedralIN40
Santa Margarita CatholicCA30
CrenshawCA20
St. LouisHI20
All 170 high-school pipelines →
✓/✗ = whether our pregame model picked the winner. Win % & projections from the Gridpex model. Data: CollegeFootballData.