@ App State · Wk 3Win prob 21%Model +12.1Schedule & Results
Team Leaders
Cole GonzalesPassing450 yds · 3 TD · 3 INT
Khamani AlexanderRushing150 yds · 1 TD · 7.5 avg
Jaylen HamptonReceiving11 rec · 142 yds · 2 TD
Collin GillTackles16 tackles · 2.5 TFL · 1 sacks
Latest on Charlotte
All news →Ole Miss's deep passing meets a secondary that can't cover
Cole Gonzales was responsible for 30 of Charlotte's 41 points
Roster · 112 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Cole Gonzales | QB | SR | 6'0" | 200 | Ocala, FL |
| 10 | Jaylen White | QB | FR | 6'0" | 200 | Clearwater, FL |
| 12 | Grayson Loftis | QB | JR | 6'3" | 215 | Gaffney, SC |
| 15 | Conner Harrell | QB | SR | 6'2" | 210 | Alabaster, AL |
| 16 | Luke McNulty | QB | FR | 6'2" | 185 | Pasadena, CA |
| 5 | Khamani Alexander | RB | SO | 6'1" | 200 | Homestead, FL |
| 6 | D'Mariun Perteet | RB | JR | 5'10" | 215 | Courtland, MS |
| 7 | Chance Williams | RB | SR | 5'8" | 180 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 21 | Henry Rutledge | RB | SR | 5'8" | 185 | Charlotte, NC |
| 24 | Jariel Cobb | RB | SO | 5'10" | 185 | Reidsville, NC |
| 27 | Malachi Drayton | RB | FR | 5'10" | 215 | Fort Mill, SC |
| 41 | Chris Najm | RB | FR | 6'0" | 180 | Pinehurst, NC |
| 0 | Cam Pedro | WR | SR | 5'11" | 180 | Suwanee, GA |
| 1 | Jaden Barnes | WR | SR | 5'8" | 170 | Mcdonough, GA |
| 2 | Jaylen Hampton | WR | SO | 6'2" | 200 | Atlanta, GA |
| 4 | Tank Boston | WR | SO | 5'11" | 190 | Anderson, SC |
| 8 | Zyheem Collick | WR | SO | 5'11" | 165 | Snow Hill, MD |
| 11 | KD Hunter-Gibson | WR | SR | 6'0" | 190 | Tupelo, MS |
| 13 | Caleb Tucker | WR | FR | 6'0" | 185 | Bryant, AR |
| 14 | Adam Hopkins IV | WR | JR | 6'0" | 180 | Thomasville, GA |
| 18 | Seth Franklin | WR | JR | 5'10" | 170 | Fayetteville, NC |
| 20 | Donte Nicholson | WR | FR | 5'11" | 170 | Charlotte, NC |
| 38 | Sean Manuel | WR | FR | 6'2" | 180 | Raleigh, NC |
| 80 | Jeremiah Hoffman | WR | FR | 6'1" | 175 | Severance, CO |
| 82 | Shelden Golliday | WR | FR | 6'3" | 180 | Omaha, NE |
| 89 | Derrick Eley | WR | SO | 6'0" | 170 | Huntersville, NC |
| 3 | Logan Mauldin | TE | SR | 6'4" | 230 | Charlotte, NC |
| 17 | Gus McGee | TE | SR | 6'5" | 250 | Newburyport, MA |
| 19 | Brody Dawyot | TE | FR | 6'5" | 220 | Salem, VA |
| 81 | Brady Rhoads | TE | SO | 6'4" | 230 | Sun Prairie, WI |
| 83 | Grant Laskey | TE | SO | 6'5" | 240 | Valdosta, GA |
| 85 | Jason Jeffares | TE | JR | 6'3" | 230 | Charlotte, NC |
| 88 | Lane Wadle | TE | JR | 6'4" | 255 | Greenfield, IN |
| 50 | Rod Green | OL | SR | 6'5" | 315 | Dayton, OH |
| 54 | Isaac Sikes-Rasby | OL | FR | 6'5" | 275 | Kennesaw, GA |
| 55 | Mathias Nielsen | OL | SR | 6'3" | 305 | Bagsvaerd |
| 56 | Jake Allen | OL | FR | 6'2" | 305 | Jackson, OH |
| 57 | Luke Sandy | OL | SR | 6'2" | 305 | Elizabeth, CO |
| 58 | Mason Mcgill | OL | FR | 6'4" | 280 | Gainesville, GA |
| 61 | Reginhard Pierre-Nau | OL | JR | 6'2" | 305 | Jonesboro, GA |
| 63 | Callum Cary | OL | FR | 6'4" | 285 | Olin, NC |
| 64 | O'Shea Stroman | OL | JR | 6'1" | 290 | Lithonia, GA |
| 65 | Nic Cruji | OL | SR | 6'4" | 305 | Toronto, ON |
| 66 | Omarion Davis | OL | SR | 6'5" | 305 | Vero Beach, FL |
| 67 | Dom Silvia | OL | SO | 6'6" | 320 | Bridgewater, MA |
| 68 | Cody Taylor | OL | FR | 6'3" | 310 | Greenwood, AR |
| 71 | Amar Harper | OL | JR | 6'5" | 335 | Magee, MS |
| 73 | Daniel Phillips | OL | FR | 6'5" | 300 | Chicago, IL |
| 74 | J'ven Williams | OL | JR | 6'5" | 315 | Reading, PA |
| 75 | Kristos Fernandez | OL | SR | 6'5" | 300 | New Hyde Park, NY |
| 76 | Isaiah Bullerdick | OL | SR | 6'2" | 300 | Harrisburg, NC |
| 77 | Dylan Nolan-Cook | OL | JR | 6'5" | 305 | Scottsdale, AZ |
| 79 | Tristen Brown | OL | FR | 6'3" | 295 | — |
| 2 | Jaylon Johnson | DL | SR | 6'4" | 250 | Antioch, TN |
| 7 | DJ Burgess | DL | SR | 6'2" | 270 | Oxford, MS |
| 8 | Calif Spencer | DL | JR | 6'3" | 250 | Harrington, DE |
| 9 | Curtis Simpson | DL | SO | 6'4" | 230 | Shelby, NC |
| 14 | Kendal Brown | DL | SO | 6'4" | 235 | Savannah, GA |
| 15 | Ayo Tifase | DL | SR | 6'4" | 285 | Baltimore, MD |
| 23 | Darius Wallace | DL | SO | 6'3" | 235 | Suwanee, GA |
| 33 | Colin Bussey | DL | FR | 6'3" | 250 | Douglasville, GA |
| 35 | Jamil Davis | DL | SO | 6'1" | 280 | Humble, TX |
| 44 | Austin Herndon | DL | FR | 6'2" | 230 | Cary, NC |
| 51 | Jamarrion Solomon | DL | SR | 6'0" | 270 | Miami, FL |
| 52 | Kaiden Bower | DL | FR | 6'3" | 240 | Carmel, IN |
| 55 | Shaku Sangarie | DL | JR | 6'2" | 250 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 77 | Lewis Price-Law | DL | FR | 6'4" | 295 | Fort Mill, SC |
| 85 | Caleb Irving | DL | SO | 6'1" | 290 | Glenn Heights, TX |
| 88 | D'Nas White | DL | SO | 6'4" | 335 | Concord, NC |
| 90 | Chris Morton | DL | FR | 6'3" | 220 | Wilmington, NC |
| 94 | Takeo Massey | DL | FR | 6'3" | 205 | — |
| 95 | Devin Ancrum | DL | FR | 6'1" | 300 | Buford, GA |
| 98 | Ehigie Aliu-Otokiti | DL | SR | 6'1" | 280 | Orlando, FL |
| 99 | Jaylen Doss | DL | FR | 6'2" | 270 | Petal, MS |
| 10 | Jerry Wall III | LB | JR | 6'1" | 235 | Olive Branch, MS |
| 13 | Gavin Willis | LB | SR | 6'0" | 230 | Louisville, KY |
| 19 | Kadin Schmitz | LB | SR | 6'1" | 235 | Ashland, OH |
| 25 | Gray Patterson | LB | FR | 6'3" | 215 | Fort Mill, SC |
| 30 | Stellan Bowman | LB | SO | 6'0" | 230 | Grand Rapids, MI |
| 32 | Latrell Sellers | LB | FR | 6'2" | 210 | Hazlehurst, GA |
| 36 | Parker Startz | LB | SO | 6'3" | 240 | Mokena, IL |
| 45 | Mikey Domanik | LB | FR | 6'0" | 205 | Marietta, GA |
| 46 | Will Estes | LB | FR | 6'1" | 210 | — |
| 47 | Leo Housel-Rajacich | LB | FR | 6'1" | 215 | Winston-Salem, NC |
| 0 | Collin Gill | DB | JR | 6'0" | 210 | Fort Washington, MD |
| 1 | Jameel Croft Jr. | DB | JR | 6'0" | 210 | Detroit, MI |
| 3 | Dy'Lon Womack | DB | SO | 6'0" | 180 | Powder Springs, GA |
| 4 | Tradarius Smith | DB | JR | 6'3" | 190 | Port Gibson, MS |
| 5 | Jonathan Patterson | DB | JR | 6'0" | 195 | McKinney, TX |
| 6 | Nireek Sharpe | DB | JR | 6'0" | 175 | Atlanta, GA |
| 11 | DeQuinder Williams II | DB | SO | 6'0" | 180 | Charlotte, NC |
| 12 | CJ Clinkscales Jr. | DB | SR | 5'8" | 175 | Buford, GA |
| 16 | Shamar McIntosh | DB | SO | 5'11" | 190 | Washington, DC |
| 17 | Kameron Manley | DB | SO | 5'9" | 170 | Raleigh, NC |
| 18 | Chase Usher | DB | FR | 5'8" | 180 | Tyrone, GA |
| 20 | Zayden Laing-Taylor | DB | SO | 5'11" | 190 | Miami, FL |
| 21 | Maddox West | DB | FR | 5'10" | 175 | Smyrna, GA |
| 22 | Kaden Catoe | DB | FR | 6'0" | 170 | Greensboro, NC |
| 24 | Josh Hines | DB | FR | 6'2" | 205 | Charlotte, NC |
| 26 | Devon St. Clair | DB | FR | 6'2" | 190 | Orlando, FL |
| 27 | Kevin Beckham Jr. | DB | SO | 6'0" | 190 | Mobile, AL |
| 28 | Cornell Allen | DB | SO | 5'10" | 190 | Ashland, VA |
| 29 | Donald Smith III | DB | JR | 6'2" | 190 | Baltimore, MD |
| 31 | Tyson Craig | DB | FR | 5'11" | 180 | — |
| 34 | Alchino Blakely | DB | FR | 5'10" | 190 | Snellville, GA |
| 37 | Spencer Makuch | DB | FR | 6'0" | 200 | Cleveland, TN |
| 84 | Aiden Bui | PK | FR | 5'9" | 160 | Pearland, TX |
| 99 | Charlie Birtwistle | PK | SO | 5'11" | 210 | Belmont, NC |
| 44 | Ian Kelly | P | FR | 6'0" | 160 | Bluffton, SC |
| 95 | Bronson Long | P | SR | 6'4" | 200 | Gothenburg, NE |
| 33 | Henry Searcy | LS | FR | 6'3" | 185 | Tallahassee, FL |
| 40 | Charlie Becker | LS | FR | 6'2" | 210 | Miami, FL |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Charlotte is in year 2 under Tim Albin, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 5th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 138th at running it, and they are 138th at shutting down the ground game.
On fourth down he goes for it less often than his peers do from the same spots (−3.4%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −35.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Charlotte has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#5projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#17projected
Projected soft spots
- Offenserunning it#138projected
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#138projected
- Defensefirst and second down#138projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 2.96#85
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.18 / 2.05
- Power / stuff (off)
- 50.0% / 25.0%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 12.0%#124
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 11.2% / 0.8%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.13#59 | -0.13#123 | 0.77#36 |
| Defense | -0.11#45 | 0.82#138 | 0.49#91 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.1636th
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.383rd
- Offense success rate41%35th
- Defense success rate allowed56%1st
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs46%37th
- Offense success — passing downs30%35th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs56%1st
- Defense success allowed — passing downs57%1st
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.252nd
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.261st
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.151st
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.053rd
Trenches
- Offense line yards2.939th
- Defense line yards allowed3.312th
- Offense highlight yards2.079th
- Defense highlight yards allowed1.615th
- Offense power success0.4912th
- Defense power success allowed0.947th
- Offense stuff rate0.2512th
- Defense stuff rate0.2572nd
Third down
- Third down conversion48%66th
- Third down distance faced6.274th
- Third down conversion allowed47%15th
- Third down distance forced5.65th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half-0.0226th
- Net success rate — second half-0.184th
Drives
- Points per drive1.020th
- Points per drive allowed4.28th
- Average starting field position2843rd
- Opponent starting field position2668th
- Available yards gained49%49th
- Available yards allowed63%19th
- Scoring opportunities per drive78%46th
- Scoring opportunities allowed78%58th
- Points per scoring opportunity1.313th
- Points allowed per opportunity5.43rd
- Three-and-out rate22%57th
- Three-and-outs forced22%48th
Roster
- Returning usage48%56th
- Returning EPA53.630th
- Team talent composite57725th
- Recruiting class rank10326th
- Recruiting class points17726th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Near-equal efficiency edge: 0.011 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.
Season Signature
0-2 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 9 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 47.7%
- Expected, given the spots
- 52.3%
- Over expected
- -4.5
- Fourth down vs peers
- -10
- Fourth down vs the model
- -20
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Charlotte is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Charlotte in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0% | 0.3 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 1-11 | 0-8 | 8% | 1.5 | -0.5 |
| 2024 | 5-7 | 4-4 | 42% | 3.0 | +2.0 |
| 2023 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 25% | 3.2 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 25% | 2.4 | +0.6 |
| 2021 | 5-7 | 3-5 | 42% | 3.2 | +1.8 |
| 2020 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 33% | 2.2 | -0.2 |
| 2019 | 7-6 | 5-3 | 54% | 7.5 | -0.5 |
| 2018 | 5-7 | 4-4 | 42% | 5.7 | -0.7 |
| 2017 | 1-11 | 1-7 | 8% | 0.5 | +0.5 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
0-1 so far, projected to finish 1.9-10.1.
down 0.0 points since preseason.
- The American Athletic takes 0.27 bids in an average season.
American Athletic
0-0 in league play, projected 1.4-6.614 of 14 by title oddsThe American Athletic sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 40% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole American Athletic race →
If not the playoff, then
Charlotte is 0-2 and needs 6 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 1.2% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.
- Armed Forces Bowl0.4%
- Xbox Bowl0.3%
- Birmingham Bowl0.3%
- Myrtle Beach Bowl0.2%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 3 have sent Charlotte a player since 2010 — 10 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Charlotte's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.