Navy vs. Charlotte Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Navy gets at Charlotte: 2nd at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 135th at stuffing runs at the line. Where Charlotte gets at Navy: 17th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 129th at keeping everything in front of them. Navy is also 13th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 136th.
How
NAVYattacks
CLT
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
NAVY#2 of 138CLT#135 of 138 - 2
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
NAVY#13 of 138CLT#136 of 138 - 3
Run it
running it · projected
NAVY#16 of 138CLT#131 of 138
HowCLTattacksNAVY
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
CLT#17 of 138NAVY#129 of 138
The two teams
Navy
Navy runs it: Brian Newberry's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 3 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 2nd at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 130th at defending the pass, and they are 129th at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+5.5%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −29.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Navy has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#2projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#13projected
- Offenserunning it#16projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensethrowing it#130projected
- Defensehitting chunk plays#129projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#129projected
Charlotte
Charlotte is in year 2 under Tim Albin, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 5th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 138th at running it, and they are 138th at shutting down the ground game.
On fourth down he goes for it less often than his peers do from the same spots (−3.4%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −35.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Charlotte has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#5projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#17projected
Projected soft spots
- Offenserunning it#138projected
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#138projected
- Defensefirst and second down#138projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CLT Elo 1168, NAVY Elo 1513 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CLT +6.2 (35% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
NAVY43rd127thCLTCLT56th108thNAVYThrough the air
NAVY135th79thCLTCLT56th133rdNAVYOn the ground
NAVY2nd122ndCLTCLT61st6thNAVYStaying on the field
NAVY62nd121stCLTCLT55th112thNAVYTaking care of it
NAVY48th108thCLTCLT75th127thNAVY
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| NAVY | CLT | |
|---|---|---|
| -11.8 (#111) | CORE overall | -16.1 (#124) |
| -3 / +9 | offense / defense | -11 / +5 |
| 2.54 | points / drive | 1.00 |
| 3.67 | allowed / drive | 4.22 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -13 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Navy vs. Charlotte?
Gridpex's model favors Navy with a 66% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Navy vs. Charlotte?
The model projects Navy by 6.2.
What time is Navy vs. Charlotte and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Jerry Richardson Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →