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Florida International

Florida International Panthers

Conference USA·1-1·
Compare
Elo
1385#95
SP+
-13.5#116
FPI
-12.1
AP
NR
Next@ Florida Atlantic · Wk 3Win prob 19%Model +13.8
Talent #90 (607.6)Recruiting class #10232% production returning

Roster · 108 players

FR 42SO 24JR 21SR 21
#PlayerPosClHtWt
5DJ AlexanderQBFR6'1"210
11Zach MarkerQBSR6'2"205
16Zachary WatersQBJR6'0"195
17JJ KohlQBJR6'7"250
20Matt IvaldiQBFR5'11"200
23Trey WhirleyQBSO5'11"195
1Anthony CarrieRBSO6'0"205
3Devonte LyonsRBSO5'11"190
10Jayden FordRBFR5'6"165
21Nate HenryRBJR5'9"190
22Sterling JosephRBFR5'9"195
36Justin CompereRBFR5'10"195
0Jojo StoneWRSO5'11"185
2Maguire AndersonWRJR6'0"185
6Eric Nelson Jr.WRSO6'3"175
7Kyle McNealWRJR6'1"185
8Greg Gaines IIIWRSR6'3"200
12Amari IsaacWRSO6'1"205
13Tyson CarterWRSO5'11"175
14Kenny WilliamsWRFR5'10"170
15Donovan GilesWRSR6'3"200
18Andre BrownWRSO5'6"150
80Dylan HermanWRSO5'11"190
82Justin LittleWRSO5'10"170
83Malik PensonWRFR5'10"170
84Barrett SchulzWRFR6'5"190
4James ResarTESO6'5"235
9Jackson VerdugoTESO6'4"250
19Davis BrownTEFR6'4"275
81Ayden PassleyTEFR6'5"230
87Remy GoinsTEFR6'2"215
88Kevin SchaefferTESR6'5"245
89Sean BurkeTEFR6'5"235
50Jeremy SmithOLFR6'5"290
51Manasseh RipertOLSR6'4"290
52Akeem NealOLSO6'5"315
53Nathan TveitOLFR6'3"310
54Zaire FlournoyOLSR6'3"335
55Daveion HarleyOLJR6'1"310
56Marc Michel Jr.OLFR6'2"300
58Oscar ColonOLJR6'3"310
60Noah FernandezOLJR6'3"315
61Ignacio ZulaicaOLFR5'11"265
66Takaylen MuexOLFR6'3"320
67Jon RodriguezOLSO6'5"300
71Antonio Tripp Jr.OLJR6'3"305
73Spencer WebbOLSR6'3"295
74Matias GarciaOLFR6'0"285
75Miguel CedenoOLSR6'8"320
76Samson ChazulleOLFR6'3"325
77Riley WilsonOLFR6'4"285
78Nickolas MolinaOLSR6'7"290
5Kenton SimmonsDESR6'4"245
44Michael SmartsDEFR6'4"240
12RJ Moss Jr.DLJR6'3"285
13Dante AndersonDLSR6'4"250
14Robert WilliamsDLSO6'2"235
15Nathan JenningsDLSO6'4"295
16Nick WatsonDLSR6'3"235
24King MasseyDLFR6'4"245
33DeeJay Holmes Jr.DLJR6'1"260
45Lamont Green Jr.DLJR6'3"235
55Jamorie FlaggDLSO6'3"315
88Elijah SimmonsDLSR6'0"285
90Anthony CunninghamDLSR6'4"295
91Kyrie SamuelDLSR5'11"260
92Lukenson MorancyDLFR6'3"275
93Nealan PerezDLFR6'5"225
95Anthony SmithDLSO6'2"345
97Elisha BaldridgeDLJR6'3"245
99Germaine CarterDTJR5'11"270
9Josiah TaylorLBJR6'0"230
11Percy Courtney Jr.LBSR6'0"225
17Kani SmithLBSO6'2"210
18Pickle StewartLBSO6'1"230
22Brayshawn LittlejohnLBJR6'0"225
28Orlando Syph-TimmonsLBJR5'11"220
31Demitris MinceyLBFR6'1"210
34Cam DavisLBFR6'2"225
37Deandre ArnoldLBFR6'0"195
0Da'Vontae FloydDBSO5'10"180
1Shamir SterlinDBSO6'2"215
2DeAndre BoykinsDBSR5'11"200
3Demetrius HillDBSR6'2"205
4Wesley MillerDBSR5'11"190
6Lawrence JohnsonDBJR6'1"190
7Jai-Ayviauynn CelestineDBSR5'9"175
8Ryan GadsonDBJR5'10"190
10Ormond WallaceDBSR6'0"210
19Myles CunninghamDBSO5'11"170
20Kiyante IngramDBFR5'10"175
21Karaijus HayesDBFR5'11"185
23Tyderick BrownDBFR6'0"175
25Jakari JohnsonDBFR5'11"200
26Zay WestDBFR6'0"170
27Eric JohnsonDBFR6'0"190
29Dominic TurnbullDBFR6'2"195
32Jaeden McMillanDBFR6'0"195
35Jahmani Chin-SuerDBFR5'9"170
30Noah SidanPKFR5'8"165
48Robert CzeremchaPKSO6'1"175
82Ethan SilvaPKFR5'11"170
41Stone SpringmanPJR6'3"215
43Felix VisserPFR6'2"215
49Conrad TolericoPFR6'1"175
46Holden HarkinsLSFR5'10"190
47Justin WoodLSJR5'11"195
86Rodrigo MarronLSFR5'8"165

Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank

Points / game
21.0
scoring offense
Points allowed
19.5
scoring defense
Differential
+1.5
per game
Offense
Total yards / game
381.0#84
Yards / play
5.1#111
Passing yards / game
301.0#31
Rushing yards / game
80.0#125
First downs / game
19.0#90
3rd down %
29.4%#119
4th down %
42.9%#91
Time of possession
29:51#77
Defense
Yards allowed / game
208.0#24
Yards / play allowed
3.7#23
Pass yards allowed / game
100.0#9
Rush yards allowed / game
108.0#68
3rd down % allowed
38.5%#81
Sacks
1#104
Tackles for loss
7#77
Turnovers & Discipline
Turnover margin
-3#127
Takeaways
0#118
Giveaways
3#95
Penalties / game
8.0#100
Penalty yards / game
50.0#62

Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.

Scouting Report · 2026 projection

Florida International is in year 2 under Willie Simmons. The strengths are offensive, led by 23rd at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 125th at staying out of the backfield, and they are 124th at holding the line of scrimmage.

Florida International has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.

Projected strengths

  • Offensehitting chunk plays
    #23
    projected

Projected soft spots

  • Offensegetting stopped at the line
    #125
    projected
  • Defensethe push the line gets
    #124
    projected
  • Offensethrowing it
    #119
    projected

Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.

2026 Season Projection

model win prob · 9 to play
4.5 – 6.5
projected final record (now 1–1)
Exp. wins left
3.5
of 9 games
Bowl odds
23%
reach 6 wins
Best odds
68%
vs Sam Houston
Toughest
14%
vs Delaware

How the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 9 games left

Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.

12345678910
final winstallest bar = 28% chance
Likeliest finish 4-7 (28%)Bowl eligible 23% · marked on the axis at 6

Player Value

EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).

Unit Value — Total EPA
WRGreg Gaines III, Maguire Anderson +4
+15.7 EPA
QBJ.J. Kohl
+13.6 EPA
TEJames Resar, Jackson Verdugo
+0.3 EPA
RBAnthony Carrie, Devonte Lyons +1
-5.8 EPA

Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.

Estimated NIL Market Value
ESTIMATED
QBJ.J. Kohl
~$654K
EPA +13.60.242/play56 snaps

Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.

The Five Factors

ranked vs. FBS · bar = better
Efficiency (PPA)
Off0.1123rd#106
Def-0.0678th#31
Explosiveness
Off1.1326th#103
Def0.6599th#2
Field position
Off78.198th#4
Def58.699th#3
Finishing (pts/opp)
Off3.3328th#99
Def3.1752nd#67
Turnovers
Won 0Lost 3
Margin -3

Opponent-adjusted efficiency

EPA/play vs. schedule
Offense
—
Defense
—
Off · pass
0.2131st#95
Off · rush
-0.0717th#115

Pass vs. rush (PPA)

Rushing
Off-0.0715th#117
Def-0.1067th#46
Passing
Off0.2131st#96
Def0.1657th#60

Trenches & disruption

Line yards (off)
2.49#113
2nd-level / open-field
0.67 / 0.38
Power / stuff (off)
50.0% / 25.0%
Havoc — total (def)
15.5%#75
Havoc — front 7 / DB
12.1% / 3.4%

Standard vs. passing downs

Pro
Std downs
Off0.14
Def-0.03
Pass downs
Off0.06
Def-0.12

PPA on each down type (off vs. def).

Opponent-adjusted by down

Pro
1st2nd3rd
Offense-0.05#1060.17#770.16#118
Defense0.00#83-0.17#240.24#47

Elo Trajectory

@South FloridaSam Houston
Elo rating 1382 → 1385+3 over season

Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams

Plot these →
worst in FBSbest

Efficiency

  • Offense EPA/play0.1127th
  • Defense EPA/play allowed-0.0673rd
  • Offense success rate38%26th
  • Defense success rate allowed43%28th

Downs

  • Offense success — standard downs48%43rd
  • Offense success — passing downs21%18th
  • Defense success allowed — standard downs56%9th
  • Defense success allowed — passing downs23%60th

Explosiveness

  • Offense explosiveness1.134th
  • Defense explosiveness allowed0.6599th
  • Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.163rd
  • Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.39th

Trenches

  • Offense line yards2.518th
  • Defense line yards allowed2.272nd
  • Offense highlight yards0.3824th
  • Defense highlight yards allowed0.0881st
  • Offense power success0.5022nd
  • Defense power success allowed0.8042nd
  • Offense stuff rate0.2516th
  • Defense stuff rate0.2468th

Third down

  • Third down conversion35%26th
  • Third down distance faced7.236th
  • Third down conversion allowed38%45th
  • Third down distance forced8.269th

Halves

  • Net success rate — first half-0.1318th
  • Net success rate — second half0.0750th

Drives

  • Points per drive1.126th
  • Points per drive allowed2.146th
  • Average starting field position2312th
  • Opponent starting field position413rd
  • Available yards gained42%32nd
  • Available yards allowed46%58th
  • Scoring opportunities per drive33%1st
  • Scoring opportunities allowed100%16th
  • Points per scoring opportunity3.368th
  • Points allowed per opportunity2.167th
  • Three-and-out rate11%81st
  • Three-and-outs forced22%45th

Roster

  • Returning usage26%27th
  • Returning EPA75.239th
  • Team talent composite60835th
  • Recruiting class rank10226th
  • Recruiting class points17726th

Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.

Intelligence Report

⚡

Offensive DNA

Pass-dominant offense — below average EPA/play nationally
EPA/play
+0.111#106 · below avg
Pass EPA/play
+0.214#96
Rush EPA/play
-0.072#117
Explosiveness
1.129#103
Pts/opportunity
3.33#99
Success rate
38.2%

Pass efficiency edge: 0.285 EPA/play

🛡

Defensive Identity

Disruptive defense suppressing opponents below the national average
EPA/play allowed
-0.063#31 · above avg
Havoc rate (total)
15.5%#75
Front-7 havoc
12.1%
DB havoc
3.4%
Big play rate allowed
0.649#2
Success rate allowed
43.1%

Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.

📊

Season Signature

21.0 PPG offense, 19.5 allowed — +1.5 margin/game
Points per game
21.0
Points allowed/game
19.5
Scoring margin/game
+1.5
Turnover margin
-3won 0 · lost 3
Production returning
32%
Talent rank (247)
#90

1-1 record through 2 games.

Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th

OFFENSE23thEXPLOSIVENESS26thFINISHING28thFIELD POS98thDEFENSE78thHAVOC46th50th100th
Offense
23th
Explosiveness
26th
Finishing
28th
Field Pos
98th
Defense
78th
Havoc
46th

Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.

CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed

Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.

Overall
-3.0
#81
Offense
-7.3
#116
Defense
-4.3
#49
Full CORE ratings →

What a possession is worth · 9 drives

MeasureOffenseDefense
Points per drive1.112.11
Starting field positionown 22.7own 41.4
Available yards42.2%45.8%
Scoring opportunities33.3%100.0%
Points per opportunity3.332.11
Three-and-out rate11.1%22.2%
Every team’s drive efficiency →

Play-calling identity

Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.

Pass rate
70.6%
Expected, given the spots
57.0%
Over expected
+13.6
Fourth down vs peers
+29
Fourth down vs the model
+14
All play-calling tendencies →

National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play

Each dot = one FBS team. Florida International is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.

ELITEDEF. FORTRESSOFF. POWERHOUSEREBUILDING-0.100.00+0.10+0.20+0.30-0.050.00+0.10+0.20Offensive EPA/play← worsebetter →Defensive EPA allowed/play← worsebetter →

Similar Programs

Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Florida International in 2026

by EPA/play distance
BuffaloSP+ -11.6
Off EPA/play +0.152Def EPA/play -0.050Elo 1365
Match
98%
UCFSP+ +5.9
Off EPA/play +0.104Def EPA/play -0.106Elo 1465
Match
98%
MichiganSP+ +12.2
Off EPA/play +0.125Def EPA/play -0.018Elo 1686
Match
98%
ArkansasSP+ +3.3
Off EPA/play +0.176Def EPA/play -0.075Elo 1547
Match
97%
Sacramento StateSP+ -19.1
Off EPA/play +0.070Def EPA/play -0.015Elo 1476
Match
97%
WashingtonSP+ +12.0
Off EPA/play +0.064Def EPA/play -0.019Elo 1762
Match
97%

Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.

Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team

2015: -19.0, #112 of 1282016: -25.5, #125 of 1282017: -14.1, #106 of 1302018: -4.2, #91 of 1302019: -3.6, #71 of 1302020: -14.3, #109 of 1242021: -32.6, #127 of 1302022: -27.3, #129 of 1312023: -20.9, #127 of 1332024: -8.4, #95 of 1342025: -15.2, #109 of 1362026: -3.0, #81 of 138
20152026
Now -3.0 · #81 of 138Best -3.0 in 2026Worst -32.6 in 2021

Program History

recent seasons
YearOverallConfWin %xWLuck
20260-10-0
0%
0.1-0.1
20257-65-3
54%
6.8+0.2
20244-83-5
33%
6.4-2.4
20234-81-7
33%
3.2+0.8
20224-82-6
33%
2.5+1.5
20211-110-8
8%
1.2-0.2
20200-50-3
0%
0.9-0.9
20196-73-5
46%
7.7-1.7
20189-46-2
69%
9.4-0.4
20178-55-3
62%
7.0+1.0

xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).

0.1%of 50,000 simulated 2026 seasons end with them in the field

0-1 so far, projected to finish 6.5-5.7. Wins the Conference USA in 11%.

If they finish with…

12%
1 loss
0.3%
2 losses
0%
3 losses
0%
4 losses

Their chance of making it at each final loss count.

Win out and it is 12%. One bid goes to the best champion outside the four power leagues, so running the table only enters them into that argument.

down 0.3 points since preseason — lost 9-19 to South Florida against an expected margin of −15, so +5.2 against the number.

  • At 1 loss they are 12% where the average Conference USA team is 13%.
  • The Conference USA takes 0.02 bids in an average season.
  • One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 0.1% of seasons, having won their league in 97% of those.

Florida International’s own turning points

Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.

  • wk9at Liberty0.5
  • wk3at Florida Atlantic0.3
  • wk12at Kennesaw State0.3
  • wk11at Delaware0.3
  • wk2vs Buffalo0.2
  • wk7at Jacksonville State0.2

Who to root for

Games Florida International is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.

  • wk9Texas State over Boise State0.2
  • wk7North Dakota State over Nevada0.2
  • wk11Oregon State over Boise State0.1
  • wk5New Mexico over UTEP0.1
  • wk9Northern Illinois over UNLV0.1
  • wk2Bowling Green over Nebraska0.1
The full playoff picture →

Conference USA

0-0 in league play, projected 4.6-3.44 of 10 by title odds
11%
Wins the Conference USA
24%
Reaches the title game

The Conference USA sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 42% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.

  • wk9Florida International at Liberty22.1
  • wk12Florida International at Kennesaw State15.7
  • wk11Florida International at Delaware15.5
  • wk6New Mexico State at Florida International13.1

Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Conference USA race →

If not the playoff, then

67%
Bowl eligible
66%
Placed in a bowl
0.1%
In the playoff
34%
Season over in November

Florida International is 0-1 and needs 6 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 1.1% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.

  • Hawai'i Bowl14%
  • Armed Forces Bowl12%
  • New Orleans Bowl12%
  • 68 Ventures Bowl9.1%
  • Boca Raton Bowl5.7%
  • Cure Bowl4.1%

Every bowl, and how each one picks →

Recruiting Pipelines

since 2010

Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 13 have sent Florida International a player since 2010 — 63 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Florida International's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.

High schoolSignedDrafted
Booker T. WashingtonFL110
Miami CentralFL100
St. Thomas AquinasFL70
NorthwesternFL60
Miami Carol CityFL50
Miami SouthridgeFL40
RainesFL40
American HeritageFL30
All 170 high-school pipelines →
✓/✗ = whether our pregame model picked the winner. Win % & projections from the Gridpex model. Data: CollegeFootballData.