Florida International vs. Florida Atlantic Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Florida International gets at Florida Atlantic: 23rd at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 109th at keeping everything in front of them. Where Florida Atlantic gets at Florida International: 4th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 72nd at keeping everything in front of them. Florida International is also 83rd at running it, against a unit 134th.
How
FIUattacks
FAU
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
FIU#23 of 138FAU#109 of 138 - 2
Run it
running it · projected
FIU#83 of 138FAU#134 of 138
HowFAUattacksFIU
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
FAU#4 of 138FIU#72 of 138 - 2
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
FAU#57 of 138FIU#120 of 138 - 3
Throw it
throwing it · projected
FAU#40 of 138FIU#93 of 138
The two teams
Florida International
Florida International is in year 2 under Willie Simmons. The strengths are offensive, led by 23rd at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 125th at staying out of the backfield, and they are 124th at holding the line of scrimmage.
Florida International has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#23projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#125projected
- Defensethe push the line gets#124projected
- Offensethrowing it#119projected
Florida Atlantic
Florida Atlantic is in year 2 under Zach Kittley. The strengths are offensive, led by 4th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 134th at defending the run, and they are 126th on early downs defensively.
Florida Atlantic has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#4projected
Projected soft spots
- Defenserunning it#134projected
- Defensefirst and second down#126projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#126projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FAU Elo 1189, FIU Elo 1385 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FAU -13.8 (81% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
FIU111th137thFAUFAU123rd23rdFIUThrough the air
FIU31st133rdFAUFAU42nd9thFIUOn the ground
FIU125th134thFAUFAU103rd68thFIUStaying on the field
FIU119th131stFAUFAU35th81stFIUTaking care of it
FIU95th88thFAUFAU95th118thFIU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesFlorida Atlantic leads 16–6 · 18% have been one-possession games
| FIU | FAU | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.0 (#81) | CORE overall | -12.1 (#119) |
| -7 / -4 | offense / defense | -2 / +10 |
| 1.11 | points / drive | 2.10 |
| 2.11 | allowed / drive | 6.00 |
| 11% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +14 | pass over expected | +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Florida International vs. Florida Atlantic?
Gridpex's model favors Florida Atlantic with a 81% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Florida International vs. Florida Atlantic?
The model projects Florida Atlantic by 13.8.
What time is Florida International vs. Florida Atlantic and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 19, 6:00 PM ET, at FAU Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →