Florida International vs. Jacksonville State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Keys to this game
the three widest mismatches on the field
- 1
JXST behind schedule
success rate on passing downs — whether a drive survives 2nd and 12
JXST38%success rate20%
FIU - 2
When JXST throws
EPA per dropback against the secondary that has to cover it
JXST+0.57EPA/play+0.19FIU - 3
When FIU runs
EPA per carry against the front that has to stop it
FIU-0.09EPA/play+0.15JXST
Each line is one unit's season average against the unit it will face. The bar shows how far apart they are relative to the rest of the country — it is a description of the matchup, not a prediction.
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Neither side projects a clear way in. Florida International and Jacksonville State rate within touching distance on every unit matchup here, closest at throwing it — on this evidence it comes down to the things a season profile cannot see.
The two teams
Florida International
Florida International is in year 2 under Willie Simmons. The way in is 127th at staying out of the backfield, and they are 126th at moving the ball on the ground.
Florida International has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 25% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Soft spots
- Offensegetting stopped at the line20.3%#127 of 138
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground33%#126 of 138
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points2.85#117 of 138
Jacksonville State
Jacksonville State is in year 2 under Charles Kelly. The way in is 109th at turning trips inside the 40 into points.
Jacksonville State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 28% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Soft spots
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points3.00#109 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (JXST Elo 1426, FIU Elo 1409 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects JXST -8.7 (71% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
FIU66th56thJXSTJXST65th35thFIUThrough the air
FIU7th10thJXSTJXST60th50thFIUOn the ground
FIU114th118thJXSTJXST94th32ndFIUStaying on the field
FIU85th97thJXSTJXST16th42ndFIUTaking care of it
FIU104th46thJXSTJXST104th46thFIU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| FIU | JXST | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.6 (#68) | CORE overall | -6.6 (#98) |
| -5 / -6 | offense / defense | -2 / +5 |
| 2.00 | points / drive | 1.42 |
| 1.77 | allowed / drive | 2.30 |
| 9% | three-and-outs | 13% |
| +10 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Florida International vs. Jacksonville State?
Gridpex's model favors Jacksonville State with a 71% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Florida International vs. Jacksonville State?
The model projects Jacksonville State by 8.7.
What time is Florida International vs. Jacksonville State and what channel is it on?
Tue, Oct 13, 8:00 PM ET, at AmFirst Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →