#11Zach Terrell

QB·Western Michigan·2016 20158.4 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Zach Terrell is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Western Michigan. Zach's 2015 season ranks in the 63th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 410 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Zach Terrell's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2015 Production

Passing

262/391 Comp/Att3522 Pass yards29 Pass TD9 INT67.0% Comp %

Rushing

107 Rush yards3 Rush TD77 Carries1.4 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs QB peers

Efficiency63
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency77
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)63th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency77th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 1.08 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs Ball State (SP+ -16).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsMichigan State	L24-37	15.6	33/50	365	2	2	26.0	-35	0	0.17
2	@Georgia Southern	L17-43	7.3	24/36	227	2	3	47.0	-12	0	0.21
3	vsMurray State	W52-20	—	25/30	355	4	0	96.7	-7	0	0.66
4	@Ohio State	L12-38	29.5	18/33	169	2	1	20.5	-3	0	-0.03
6	vsCentral Michigan	W41-39	-3.1	15/22	262	4	0	94.1	43	0	1.01
7	@Ohio	W49-14	-0.5	14/20	137	3	0	73.0	24	1	0.48
8	vsMiami (OH)	W35-13	-13.5	25/32	278	3	0	88.6	5	0	0.51
9	@Eastern Michigan	W58-28	-19.7	17/23	252	0	0	91.6	72	1	0.61
10	vsBall State	W54-7	-15.5	16/22	324	3	0	99.6	9	0	1.08
11	vsBowling Green	L27-41	7.5	24/40	282	0	1	36.4	4	1	-0.02
12	@Northern Illinois	L19-27	-0.9	21/37	331	2	1	48.8	7	0	0.22
13	@Toledo	W35-30	7.7	12/20	243	2	0	71.4	-4	0	—
1	vsMiddle Tennessee	W45-31	-4.6	18/26	297	2	1	66.9	4	0	0.55

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

49.8%

Passing plays

97.0%

Rushing plays

10.1%

Standard downs

40.5%

Passing downs

74.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.24
Passing downs: 0.65
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.41 / 0.45

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2015 — 2016 · 26 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2015	Western Michigan	8.4	0.530	—	201.4
2016	Western Michigan	13.1	0.665	+0.14	293.2

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.