#1Will Shipley

RB·Clemson·20222.8 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Will Shipley is a Explosive Back for Clemson. Will's 2022 season ranks in the 35th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 249 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Will Shipley's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2022 Production

Rushing

1182 Rush yards15 Rush TD210 Carries5.6 Yards/carry

Receiving

38 Receptions242 Rec yards0 Rec TD6.4 Yards/rec

Returns

14 Kick returns324 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2022 · vs RB peers

Efficiency35
Volume70
Explosiveness52
Consistency73
Receiving64

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)35th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency73th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.19 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.89 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Louisiana Tech (SP+ -18).

NIL Market Tier· 2022

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsGeorgia Tech	W41-10	-11.8	10	42	4.2	2	1	14	0	0.62
2	vsFurman	W35-12	—	10	68	6.8	2	—	—	—	0.28
3	vsLouisiana Tech	W48-20	-17.8	12	139	11.6	2	2	14	0	0.89
4	@Wake Forest	W51-45	8.2	20	104	5.2	1	3	15	0	0.05
5	vsNC State	W30-20	6.8	14	60	4.3	0	3	37	0	0.28
6	@Boston College	W31-3	-14.9	10	33	3.3	1	1	8	0	0.12
7	@Florida State	W34-28	13.2	20	121	6.1	0	6	48	0	0.37
8	vsSyracuse	W27-21	2.5	27	172	6.4	2	3	17	0	0.13
10	@Notre Dame	L14-35	10.3	12	63	5.3	1	5	17	0	0.21
11	vsLouisville	W31-16	9.0	19	97	5.1	1	1	-2	0	0.03
12	vsMiami	W40-10	-2.7	17	61	3.6	1	3	14	0	0.04
13	vsSouth Carolina	L30-31	12.7	15	132	8.8	1	2	13	0	0.58
14	vsNorth Carolina	W39-10	7.8	7	18	2.6	1	4	26	0	0.25
1	vsTennessee	L14-31	25.2	17	72	4.2	0	4	21	0	0.01

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

24.5%

Passing plays

8.6%

Rushing plays

39.9%

Standard downs

29.5%

Passing downs

12.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.28
Passing downs: -0.01
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.25 / 0.24

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2022 · 14 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.