#24Ulysses Bentley IV

RB·SMU·20201.4 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Ulysses Bentley IV is a Featured Back for SMU. Ulysses's 2020 season ranks in the 10th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 184 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Ulysses Bentley IV's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Rushing

898 Rush yards11 Rush TD169 Carries5.3 Yards/carry

Receiving

21 Receptions174 Rec yards1 Rec TD8.3 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs RB peers

Efficiency10
Volume75
Explosiveness46
Consistency38
Receiving46

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)10th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency38th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.45 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.48 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs Stephen F. Austin.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@Texas State	W31-24	-13.4	11	49	4.5	2	1	2	0	0.10
3	@North Texas	W65-35	-8.0	19	227	11.9	3	1	21	0	0.85
4	vsStephen F. Austin	W50-7	—	5	89	17.8	2	—	—	—	1.48
5	vsMemphis	W30-27	5.7	13	32	2.5	0	3	19	0	-0.07
7	@Tulane	W37-34	4.2	25	94	3.8	1	3	-1	0	-0.01
8	vsCincinnati	L13-42	18.6	16	40	2.5	0	3	19	0	-0.20
9	vsNavy	W51-37	-9.3	25	149	6.0	2	4	68	0	0.47
10	@Temple	W47-23	-10.0	17	79	4.6	0	1	0	0	-0.13
11	@Tulsa	L24-28	5.6	26	103	4.0	1	1	5	0	0.01
13	@East Carolina	L38-52	-11.0	12	36	3.0	0	4	41	1	-0.05

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

26.2%

Passing plays

6.6%

Rushing plays

47.5%

Standard downs

28.9%

Passing downs

20.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.14
Passing downs: 0.04
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.26 / 0.09

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2020 · 10 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.