#8Trey Sermon

RB·Ohio State·20203.7 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Trey Sermon is a Explosive Back for Ohio State. Trey's 2020 season ranks in the 80th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 128 plays — a above-average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Trey Sermon's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Rushing

870 Rush yards4 Rush TD116 Carries7.5 Yards/carry

Receiving

12 Receptions95 Rec yards0 Rec TD7.9 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs RB peers

Efficiency80
Volume68
Explosiveness90
Consistency0
Receiving57

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)80th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency0th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the RB position (80th percentile).
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.10 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.48 EPA/play in Wk 14 vs Michigan State (SP+ -2).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2015	228	0.450	5.8	102.6
Devon Johnson	Marshall	2014	208	0.520	6.0	108.2

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
8	vsNebraska	W52-17	7.7	11	48	4.4	0	1	7	0	-0.19
9	@Penn State	W38-25	13.9	13	56	4.3	0	1	4	0	0.06
10	vsRutgers	W49-27	-10.5	12	68	5.7	0	1	11	0	0.10
12	vsIndiana	W42-35	11.2	9	60	6.7	0	1	13	0	0.45
14	@Michigan State	W52-12	-2.4	10	112	11.2	1	1	-5	0	0.48
16	vsNorthwestern	W22-10	9.0	29	331	11.4	2	3	4	0	0.48
1	vsAlabama	L24-52	28.3	1	2	2.0	0	—	—	—	-0.47
1	vsClemson	W49-28	26.1	31	193	6.2	1	4	61	0	-0.47

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

23.8%

Passing plays

7.5%

Rushing plays

36.1%

Standard downs

26.8%

Passing downs

15.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.37
Passing downs: -0.04
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.06 / 0.33

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2020 · 8 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.