Treshaun Ward

RB·Kansas State·2023

Treshaun Ward is a Explosive Back for Kansas State. Treshaun's 2023 season ranks in the 48th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 131 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Treshaun Ward's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Rushing

651 Rush yards5 Rush TD125 Carries5.2 Yards/carry

Receiving

17 Receptions129 Rec yards2 Rec TD7.6 Yards/rec

Returns

7 Kick returns116 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs RB peers

Efficiency48
Volume51
Explosiveness44
Consistency80
Receiving50

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)48th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency80th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.15 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.64 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs Oklahoma State (SP+ 7).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsSoutheast Missouri State	W45-0	—	11	56	5.1	1	—	—	—	0.39
2	vsTroy	W42-13	9.8	16	58	3.6	0	2	11	1	0.01
3	@Missouri	L27-30	19.3	10	54	5.4	0	5	61	0	0.29
6	@Oklahoma State	L21-29	6.7	9	59	6.6	1	—	—	—	0.64
7	@Texas Tech	W38-21	6.1	15	118	7.9	0	—	—	—	0.38
8	vsTCU	W41-3	7.9	17	89	5.2	0	3	17	1	0.21
9	vsHouston	W41-0	-7.8	10	32	3.2	1	3	15	0	0.29
10	@Texas	L30-33	23.2	9	30	3.3	0	2	12	0	-0.00
11	vsBaylor	W59-25	-8.3	10	44	4.4	1	—	—	—	0.34
12	@Kansas	W31-27	9.9	7	63	9.0	0	—	—	—	0.17
13	vsIowa State	L35-42	7.5	11	48	4.4	1	2	13	0	0.16

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

17.8%

Passing plays

4.9%

Rushing plays

28.7%

Standard downs

19.3%

Passing downs

13.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.28
Passing downs: 0.33
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.94 / 0.20

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).