#3Tim Burns Jr.
Tim Burns Jr. is a Vertical Threat WR for Sam Houston.
What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025
How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.
- Usage share (volume)0.47Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
- EPA per play (efficiency)0.09Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
- Total EPA (value)0.45Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons
Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Tim Burns Jr.'s projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.
2025 Production
Air yards
Where the ball goes, and how much of the gain is the throw rather than the run after it.
The ball travels 11.6 yards in the air on an average target — 2.6 yards deeper than the median. Another 7.0 comes after the catch.
Where he is targeted
targets · completion rate · yardsDepth and direction come from CFBD’s passing detail, which is backfilled after the games: this covers weeks 1–2 only. Spikes, throwaways and intentional grounding are excluded before any average.
Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers
- Efficiency67
- Volume15
- Explosiveness80
- Consistency0
- Pass-Down0
Elite deep receiver who stretches the field. Wins downfield, commands safety attention, and creates the threat that opens underneath routes.
- ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
- ▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
- ▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 1.04 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
- ▸Peak game: 2.46 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs New Mexico State (SP+ -16).
NIL Market Tier· 2025
On3 valuation ↗Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.46
- Passing downs
- -0.20
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.37 / -1.98
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).