#2Shea Patterson

QB·Michigan·2019 20188.5 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Shea Patterson is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Michigan. Shea's 2018 season ranks in the 70th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 364 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Shea Patterson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Passing

207/319 Comp/Att2570 Pass yards22 Pass TD7 INT64.9% Comp %

Rushing

281 Rush yards2 Rush TD75 Carries3.7 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs QB peers

Efficiency70
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency79
Clutch97

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)70th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency79th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.17 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.97 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Western Michigan (SP+ -11).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Notre Dame	L17-24	20.7	20/30	227	0	1	-21	0	0.11
2	vsWestern Michigan	W49-3	-10.7	12/17	125	3	0	0	0	0.97
3	vsSMU	W45-20	-5.4	14/18	237	3	1	20	0	0.58
4	vsNebraska	W56-10	5.4	15/22	120	1	0	-9	0	0.23
5	@Northwestern	W20-17	1.9	15/24	196	0	0	31	0	0.37
6	vsMaryland	W42-21	3.0	19/27	282	3	1	10	0	0.87
7	vsWisconsin	W38-13	15.5	14/20	124	0	0	90	1	0.19
8	@Michigan State	W21-7	11.5	14/25	212	2	0	24	0	0.28
10	vsPenn State	W42-7	19.0	11/17	144	2	0	42	1	0.41
11	@Rutgers	W42-7	-12.3	18/27	260	3	0	—	—	0.80
12	vsIndiana	W31-20	1.6	16/28	250	1	1	68	0	0.32
13	@Ohio State	L39-62	24.1	20/34	187	3	1	13	0	0.24
1	vsFlorida	L15-41	23.0	19/30	206	1	2	13	0	0.03

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

43.1%

Passing plays

93.6%

Rushing plays

10.2%

Standard downs

34.8%

Passing downs

64.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.28
Passing downs: 0.57
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.40 / 0.41

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2018 — 2019 · 26 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2018	Michigan	8.5	0.541	—	218.4
2019	Michigan	6.2	0.431	-0.11	217.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.