#13Peny Boone

RB·Toledo·20233.1 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Peny Boone is a Explosive Back for Toledo. Peny's 2023 season ranks in the 65th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 197 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Peny Boone's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Rushing

1400 Rush yards15 Rush TD194 Carries7.2 Yards/carry

Receiving

15 Receptions219 Rec yards1 Rec TD14.6 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs RB peers

Efficiency65
Volume70
Explosiveness84
Consistency76
Receiving33

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)65th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency76th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.14 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.00 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Texas Southern.

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Nick Wilson	Arizona	2014	250	0.410	5.2	102.5

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@Illinois	L28-30	-2.5	9	29	3.2	0	1	9	1	0.48
2	vsTexas Southern	W71-3	—	6	39	6.5	3	—	—	—	1.00
3	vsSan José State	W21-17	-3.4	13	123	9.5	0	2	19	0	0.51
4	vsWestern Michigan	W49-31	-15.9	24	211	8.8	2	—	—	—	0.51
5	vsNorthern Illinois	W35-33	-7.5	16	113	7.1	0	—	—	—	-0.03
6	@Massachusetts	W41-24	-17.5	17	129	7.6	2	—	—	—	0.40
7	@Ball State	W13-6	-14.9	22	148	6.7	1	1	8	0	0.21
8	@Miami (OH)	W21-17	2.8	17	73	4.3	0	—	—	—	0.03
10	vsBuffalo	W31-13	-15.2	12	125	10.4	1	1	13	0	-0.01
11	vsEastern Michigan	W49-23	-12.3	11	52	4.7	3	4	116	0	0.76
12	@Bowling Green	W32-31	-7.8	15	131	8.7	1	3	24	0	0.52
13	@Central Michigan	W32-17	-19.1	21	186	8.9	2	1	0	0	0.69
14	vsMiami (OH)	L14-23	2.8	11	41	3.7	0	2	30	0	0.04

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

24.4%

Passing plays

4.4%

Rushing plays

38.5%

Standard downs

29.9%

Passing downs

12.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.38
Passing downs: 0.22
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.72 / 0.33

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2023 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.