#4Nick Arbuckle

QB·Georgia State·20159.7 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Nick Arbuckle is a Dual-Threat QB for Georgia State. Nick's 2015 season ranks in the 40th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 526 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Nick Arbuckle's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2015 Production

Passing

307/486 Comp/Att4368 Pass yards28 Pass TD12 INT63.2% Comp %

Rushing

-95 Rush yards6 Rush TD61 Carries-1.6 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs QB peers

Efficiency40
Volume100
Dual-Threat77
Consistency83
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)40th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency83th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸8 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.82 EPA/play in Wk 11 vs Texas State (SP+ -16).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6
Trace McSorley	Penn State	2017	626	0.513	12.7	321.0
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsCharlotte	L20-23	-21.7	25/43	299	2	1	24.7	-7	0	0.12
2	@New Mexico State	W34-32	-18.6	32/43	372	2	1	81.5	9	0	0.52
3	@Oregon	L28-61	15.9	25/35	318	3	2	38.5	-14	1	0.54
5	vsLiberty	L33-41	—	18/29	394	3	1	79.4	-22	1	0.65
6	vsApp State	L3-37	7.9	21/37	166	0	1	25.9	-5	0	0.03
7	@Ball State	W31-19	-15.5	28/38	412	1	0	90.2	-18	2	0.68
9	@Arkansas State	L34-48	0.5	23/43	390	2	1	52.8	-13	0	0.25
10	vsLouisiana	L21-23	-7.1	22/38	313	3	1	73.8	-18	0	0.35
11	@Texas State	W41-19	-15.5	23/34	471	4	2	96.5	25	0	0.82
12	vsSouth Alabama	W24-10	-10.4	27/44	311	1	0	87.3	-2	1	0.56
13	vsTroy	W31-21	-7.0	29/41	368	2	0	84.5	-17	1	0.56
14	@Georgia Southern	W34-7	7.3	20/32	346	3	1	75.6	5	0	0.47
1	vsSan José State	L16-27	-4.5	14/29	208	2	1	21.1	-18	0	0.07

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

59.2%

Passing plays

97.5%

Rushing plays

8.7%

Standard downs

52.1%

Passing downs

73.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.30
Passing downs: 0.63
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.45 / 0.28

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2015 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.