#3Nate Frazier

RB·Georgia·2025

Nate Frazier is a Explosive Back for Georgia. Nate's 2025 season ranks in the 8th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 187 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Nate Frazier's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

947 Rush yards6 Rush TD173 Carries5.5 Yards/carry

Receiving

16 Receptions116 Rec yards1 Rec TD7.3 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers

Efficiency8
Volume55
Explosiveness50
Consistency54
Receiving42

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)8th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency54th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.16 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.07 EPA/play in Wk 11 vs Mississippi State (SP+ 4).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsMarshall	W45-7	-4.5	11	47	4.3	0	—	—	—	0.02
2	vsAustin Peay	W28-6	—	14	69	4.9	2	2	15	0	0.21
3	@Tennessee	W44-41	15.0	14	73	5.2	0	—	—	—	0.03
5	vsAlabama	L21-24	14.8	4	30	7.5	0	—	—	—	0.29
6	vsKentucky	W35-14	1.8	7	34	4.9	0	1	11	0	0.16
7	@Auburn	W20-10	11.6	10	24	2.4	0	2	17	0	-0.06
8	vsOle Miss	W43-35	24.0	17	72	4.2	0	2	4	1	0.08
10	vsFlorida	W24-20	3.5	12	45	3.8	0	1	7	0	0.03
11	@Mississippi State	W41-21	4.1	12	181	15.1	1	—	—	—	1.07
12	vsTexas	W35-10	16.2	16	72	4.5	0	—	—	—	-0.02
13	vsCharlotte	W35-3	-26.7	12	54	4.5	2	1	7	0	0.27
14	vsGeorgia Tech	W16-9	9.3	16	108	6.8	0	2	5	0	0.20
15	vsAlabama	W28-7	14.8	13	52	4.0	1	2	8	0	0.07
20	vsOle Miss	L34-39	24.0	15	86	5.7	0	3	42	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

19.1%

Passing plays

4.4%

Rushing plays

30.8%

Standard downs

21.8%

Passing downs

12.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.11
Passing downs: 0.34
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.46 / 0.12

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).