#25Mike Weber

RB·Ohio State·2017 20162.6 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Mike Weber is a 2-year Committee Back for Ohio State. Mike's 2016 season ranks in the 38th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 187 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Mike Weber's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2016 Production

Rushing

1096 Rush yards9 Rush TD182 Carries6.0 Yards/carry

Receiving

23 Receptions91 Rec yards0 Rec TD4.0 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs RB peers

Efficiency38
Volume60
Explosiveness60
Consistency10
Receiving58

Player type

Committee Back

Part of a rotation — contributes in a complementary role and keeps the featured back fresh.

Rotational roleSituational use

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)38th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency10th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.30 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.67 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Bowling Green (SP+ -7).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsBowling Green	W77-10	-6.6	19	136	7.2	0	—	—	—	0.67
2	vsTulsa	W48-3	7.4	17	92	5.4	1	1	0	0	0.14
3	@Oklahoma	W45-24	26.1	18	123	6.8	0	1	6	0	0.18
5	vsRutgers	W58-0	-14.9	14	144	10.3	1	1	3	0	0.36
6	vsIndiana	W38-17	4.6	15	71	4.7	2	3	10	0	0.21
7	@Wisconsin	W30-23	16.1	11	46	4.2	0	—	—	—	0.20
8	@Penn State	L21-24	19.0	21	71	3.4	0	8	36	0	-0.20
9	vsNorthwestern	W24-20	2.9	14	87	6.2	2	3	20	0	0.35
10	vsNebraska	W62-3	10.3	11	72	6.5	1	1	15	0	0.46
11	@Maryland	W62-3	-0.6	12	93	7.8	0	—	—	—	0.05
12	@Michigan State	W17-16	7.4	14	111	7.9	1	—	—	—	-0.04
13	vsMichigan	W30-27	24.4	11	26	2.4	1	2	-3	0	-0.04
1	vsClemson	L0-31	28.7	5	24	4.8	0	3	4	0	-0.83

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

20.9%

Passing plays

6.7%

Rushing plays

32.7%

Standard downs

26.0%

Passing downs

9.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.14
Passing downs: 0.05
Pass / Rush EPA: -0.39 / 0.22

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 — 2017 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2016	Ohio State	2.6	0.330	—	62.4
2017	Ohio State	2.5	0.440	+0.11	48.8

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.