#25Mike Weber

RB·Ohio State·2017 20162.5 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Mike Weber is a 2-year Explosive Back for Ohio State. Mike's 2017 season ranks in the 80th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 87 plays — a above-average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Mike Weber's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2017 Production

Rushing

626 Rush yards10 Rush TD101 Carries6.2 Yards/carry

Receiving

10 Receptions94 Rec yards0 Rec TD9.4 Yards/rec

Returns

9 Kick returns143 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs RB peers

Efficiency80
Volume37
Explosiveness64
Consistency57
Receiving41

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)80th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency57th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the RB position (80th percentile).
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Peak game: 1.31 EPA/play in Wk 11 vs Michigan State (SP+ 14).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
Devon Johnson	Marshall	2014	208	0.520	6.0	108.2
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2015	228	0.450	5.8	102.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
2	vsOklahoma	L16-31	25.5	3	29	9.7	0	2	10	0	0.95
3	vsArmy	W38-7	-5.3	4	13	3.3	0	—	—	—	-0.14
5	@Rutgers	W56-0	-5.5	10	44	4.4	3	—	—	—	0.56
6	vsMaryland	W62-14	-4.5	13	59	4.5	1	1	53	0	0.61
7	@Nebraska	W56-14	2.5	18	82	4.6	0	—	—	—	0.08
9	vsPenn State	W39-38	26.0	7	21	3.0	1	5	9	0	0.12
10	@Iowa	L24-55	9.8	5	27	5.4	0	1	6	0	0.41
11	vsMichigan State	W48-3	13.8	9	162	18.0	2	—	—	—	1.31
12	vsIllinois	W52-14	-7.4	11	108	9.8	2	—	—	—	0.72
13	@Michigan	W31-20	19.6	12	57	4.8	1	—	—	—	0.06
14	vsWisconsin	W27-21	26.8	4	6	1.5	0	—	—	—	-0.56
1	vsUSC	W24-7	17.9	5	18	3.6	0	1	16	0	-0.01

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

12.9%

Passing plays

2.9%

Rushing plays

21.0%

Standard downs

15.8%

Passing downs

4.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.43
Passing downs: 0.23
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.46 / 0.40

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 — 2017 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2016	Ohio State	2.6	0.330	—	62.4
2017	Ohio State	2.5	0.440	+0.11	48.8

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.