#45Mark Weisman

RB·Iowa·20141.9 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Mark Weisman is a Committee Back for Iowa. Mark's 2014 season ranks in the 5th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 215 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Mark Weisman's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2014 Production

Rushing

812 Rush yards16 Rush TD213 Carries3.8 Yards/carry

Receiving

4 Receptions37 Rec yards0 Rec TD9.3 Yards/rec

Returns

4 Kick returns87 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs RB peers

Efficiency5
Volume65
Explosiveness16
Consistency30
Receiving12

Player type

Committee Back

Part of a rotation — contributes in a complementary role and keeps the featured back fresh.

Rotational roleSituational use

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)5th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency30th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.27 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.95 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Northern Iowa.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsNorthern Iowa	W31-23	—	10	34	3.4	1	1	5	0	0.95
2	vsBall State	W17-13	-6.6	6	13	2.2	0	—	—	—	-0.30
3	vsIowa State	L17-20	-7.9	16	49	3.1	1	1	8	0	0.40
4	@Pittsburgh	W24-20	14.1	22	88	4.0	2	—	—	—	0.20
5	@Purdue	W24-10	-6.2	24	76	3.2	2	—	—	—	0.06
7	vsIndiana	W45-29	1.8	25	89	3.6	2	—	—	—	0.13
8	@Maryland	L31-38	5.7	10	78	7.8	2	1	11	0	0.68
10	vsNorthwestern	W48-7	1.5	20	94	4.7	3	—	—	—	0.23
11	@Minnesota	L14-51	6.8	14	21	1.5	1	—	—	—	-0.18
12	@Illinois	W30-14	0.4	23	134	5.8	0	—	—	—	-0.04
13	vsWisconsin	L24-26	20.8	12	44	3.7	0	1	13	0	-0.04
14	vsNebraska	L34-37	13.1	24	82	3.4	0	—	—	—	-0.01
1	vsTennessee	L28-45	12.2	7	10	1.4	2	—	—	—	-0.16

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

22.7%

Passing plays

1.5%

Rushing plays

42.9%

Standard downs

28.5%

Passing downs

9.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.10
Passing downs: 0.45
Pass / Rush EPA: -0.10 / 0.16

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.