#7Lucky Sutton

RB·San Diego State·20252.7 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Lucky Sutton is a Featured Back for San Diego State. Lucky's 2025 season ranks in the 48th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 255 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Lucky Sutton's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

1292 Rush yards10 Rush TD253 Carries5.1 Yards/carry

Receiving

5 Receptions3 Rec yards0 Rec TD0.6 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers

Efficiency48
Volume89
Explosiveness42
Consistency84
Receiving25

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)48th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency84th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.13 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.40 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Washington State (SP+ 4).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3
Donnel Pumphrey	San Diego State	2016	344	0.320	4.2	110.1

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsStony Brook	W42-0	—	23	100	4.3	2	1	2	0	0.30
2	@Washington State	L13-36	3.8	15	88	5.9	0	—	—	—	0.40
4	vsCalifornia	W34-0	-3.2	12	61	5.1	1	—	—	—	0.25
5	@Northern Illinois	W6-3	-16.7	17	88	5.2	0	—	—	—	0.27
6	vsColorado State	W45-24	-15.6	21	113	5.4	2	—	—	—	0.34
7	@Nevada	W44-10	-13.4	16	76	4.8	1	—	—	—	0.14
9	@Fresno State	W23-0	1.8	21	131	6.2	1	—	—	—	0.17
10	vsWyoming	W24-7	-11.3	28	158	5.6	1	—	—	—	0.09
11	@Hawai'i	L6-38	1.7	18	78	4.3	0	—	—	—	-0.05
12	vsBoise State	W17-7	3.1	25	150	6.0	0	1	-4	0	0.34
13	vsSan José State	W25-3	-14.3	20	79	4.0	1	1	-3	0	0.20
14	@New Mexico	L17-23	0.9	22	110	5.0	1	1	0	0	0.18
20	vsNorth Texas	L47-49	13.8	15	60	4.0	0	1	8	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

31.1%

Passing plays

4.2%

Rushing plays

47.8%

Standard downs

35.0%

Passing downs

22.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.26
Passing downs: 0.06
Pass / Rush EPA: -0.54 / 0.25

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2025 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.