#9Kurtis Rourke

QB·Indiana·20249.9 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Kurtis Rourke is a Clutch Passer for Indiana. Kurtis's 2024 season ranks in the 95th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 334 plays — a elite rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Kurtis Rourke's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Passing

222/320 Comp/Att3042 Pass yards29 Pass TD5 INT69.4% Comp %

Rushing

-35 Rush yards2 Rush TD46 Carries-0.8 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs QB peers

Efficiency95
Volume100
Dual-Threat11
Consistency81
Clutch84

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)95th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency81th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among QBs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.41 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.18 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Western Illinois.

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsFlorida International	W31-7	-12.1	15/24	180	1	0	42.7	3	0	0.32
2	vsWestern Illinois	W77-3	—	15/17	268	2	0	98.3	13	1	1.18
3	@UCLA	W42-13	-1.3	25/33	307	4	0	95.5	7	0	0.83
4	vsCharlotte	W52-14	-15.3	16/20	258	1	0	98.3	32	1	0.91
5	vsMaryland	W42-28	-3.9	22/33	359	3	2	80.8	-9	0	0.53
6	vsNorthwestern	W41-24	-8.2	25/33	380	3	0	96.0	-2	0	0.70
8	vsNebraska	W56-7	5.5	17/21	189	1	1	89.8	1	0	0.33
10	@Michigan State	W47-10	-4.6	19/29	263	4	0	90.0	0	0	0.62
11	vsMichigan	W20-15	10.6	17/28	206	2	1	44.3	-28	0	0.17
13	@Ohio State	L15-38	31.2	8/18	68	0	0	42.6	-33	0	-0.16
14	vsPurdue	W66-0	-16.2	23/31	349	6	0	78.6	-9	0	0.74
20	@Notre Dame	L17-27	23.9	20/33	215	2	1	65.3	-10	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

46.9%

Passing plays

93.6%

Rushing plays

6.5%

Standard downs

41.6%

Passing downs

60.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.42
Passing downs: 0.64
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.54 / -0.04

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2024 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.