#10Justin Herbert

QB·Oregon·2019 20188.0 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Justin Herbert is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Oregon. Justin's 2018 season ranks in the 48th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 446 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Justin Herbert's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Passing

240/404 Comp/Att3151 Pass yards29 Pass TD8 INT59.4% Comp %

Rushing

166 Rush yards2 Rush TD71 Carries2.3 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs QB peers

Efficiency48
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency80
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)48th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency80th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.24 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.78 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Bowling Green (SP+ -22).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsBowling Green	W58-24	-22.0	10/21	281	5	2	—	41	1	0.78
2	vsPortland State	W62-14	—	20/26	250	4	0	—	-5	0	0.54
3	vsSan José State	W35-22	-17.1	16/34	309	3	2	—	5	0	0.14
4	vsStanford	L31-38	13.0	26/33	346	1	1	—	35	0	0.56
5	@California	W42-24	3.9	16/22	225	2	0	—	31	0	0.68
7	vsWashington	W30-27	19.9	18/32	202	2	0	—	-1	0	0.18
8	@Washington State	L20-34	11.3	25/44	270	1	0	—	9	1	0.24
9	@Arizona	L15-44	3.6	24/48	186	2	1	38.7	31	0	0.01
10	vsUCLA	W42-21	-0.4	18/32	264	2	0	—	4	0	0.38
11	@Utah	L25-32	16.8	20/33	288	3	0	—	24	0	0.51
12	vsArizona State	W31-29	5.0	19/34	262	2	2	—	4	0	0.34
13	@Oregon State	W55-15	-16.0	9/12	102	1	0	—	-5	0	0.18
1	vsMichigan State	W7-6	11.5	19/33	166	1	0	—	-7	0	0.05

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

50.1%

Passing plays

97.0%

Rushing plays

10.4%

Standard downs

39.8%

Passing downs

74.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.18
Passing downs: 0.59
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.33 / 0.65

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2018 — 2019 · 27 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2018	Oregon	8.0	0.486	—	230.1
2019	Oregon	8.0	0.530	+0.04	230.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.