#5Justice Hill

RB·Oklahoma State·20174.5 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Justice Hill is a Featured Back for Oklahoma State. Justice's 2017 season ranks in the 55th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 296 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Justice Hill's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2017 Production

Rushing

1467 Rush yards15 Rush TD268 Carries5.5 Yards/carry

Receiving

31 Receptions190 Rec yards1 Rec TD6.1 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs RB peers

Efficiency55
Volume85
Explosiveness50
Consistency65
Receiving49

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)55th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency65th %ile · average

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.21 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.52 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Tulsa (SP+ -11).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Jonathan Taylor	Wisconsin	2017	307	0.350	4.8	107.4
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3
Jonathan Taylor	Wisconsin	2018	297	0.360	5.0	106.9

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsTulsa	W59-24	-10.7	15	132	8.8	1	3	10	0	0.52
2	@South Alabama	W44-7	-12.0	11	27	2.5	0	4	46	0	0.09
3	@Pittsburgh	W59-21	6.0	11	91	8.3	2	2	2	0	0.48
4	vsTCU	L31-44	18.9	25	102	4.1	1	3	27	0	0.23
5	@Texas Tech	W41-34	4.8	30	164	5.5	0	2	7	1	0.11
7	vsBaylor	W59-16	-1.4	14	117	8.4	1	1	7	0	0.42
8	@Texas	W13-10	10.6	33	117	3.5	0	3	29	0	-0.10
9	@West Virginia	W50-39	5.6	12	86	7.2	2	—	—	—	0.22
10	vsOklahoma	L52-62	25.5	30	228	7.6	2	—	—	—	0.39
11	@Iowa State	W49-42	7.5	25	134	5.4	3	6	35	0	0.15
12	vsKansas State	L40-45	10.9	23	91	4.0	1	4	21	0	0.01
13	vsKansas	W58-17	-14.8	16	58	3.6	1	2	7	0	-0.15
1	vsVirginia Tech	W30-21	14.3	23	120	5.2	1	1	-1	0	0.01

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

29.9%

Passing plays

8.1%

Rushing plays

54.6%

Standard downs

30.7%

Passing downs

28.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.05
Passing downs: 0.41
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.14 / 0.15

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.