#86Joshua Guerin

WR·Navy·2025

Joshua Guerin is a Vertical Threat WR for Navy.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Joshua Guerin's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

3 Receptions60 Rec yards0 Rec TD20.0 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency0
Volume5
Explosiveness87
Consistency77
Pass-Down100

Player type

Vertical Threat WR

Elite deep receiver who stretches the field. Wins downfield, commands safety attention, and creates the threat that opens underneath routes.

Downfield threatYAC upsideCreates space for teammates

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency77th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs WR peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 1.97 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs South Florida (SP+ 12).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
De'Michael Harris	Southern Miss	2019	117	0.130	0.7	15.2
Hyleck Foster	Marshall	2015	101	0.180	0.5	18.2
Amare Jones	Tulane	2020	71	0.180	0.0	12.8
Shai Werts	Georgia Southern	2017	161	0.150	0.0	24.2
Davis Bryson	Kennesaw State	2024	97	0.200	0.0	19.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
3	@Tulsa	W42-23	-10.0	1	35	35.0	0	35	0.96
6	vsAir Force	W34-31	-3.2	1	9	9.0	0	9	-0.16
11	@Notre Dame	L10-49	24.4	—	—	—	—	—	1.34
12	vsSouth Florida	W41-38	11.6	1	16	16.0	0	16	1.97

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

1.8%

Passing plays

6.1%

Rushing plays

0.4%

Standard downs

1.1%

Passing downs

4.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: -1.15
Passing downs: 0.85
Pass / Rush EPA: -0.24 / 1.34

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).