#4Joe Jackson
Joe Jackson is a Featured Back for Kansas State. Joe's 2025 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 200 plays — a developing rate for the RB.
What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025
How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.
- Usage share (volume)0.52Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
- EPA per play (efficiency)0.10Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
- Total EPA (value)0.41Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons
Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Joe Jackson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.
2025 Production
Air yards
Where the ball goes, and how much of the gain is the throw rather than the run after it.
The ball travels 2.3 yards in the air on an average target — 6.6 yards shorter than the median. Another 14.0 comes after the catch.
Where he is targeted
targets · completion rate · yardsDepth and direction come from CFBD’s passing detail, which is backfilled after the games: this covers weeks 1–2 only. Spikes, throwaways and intentional grounding are excluded before any average.
Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers
- Efficiency0
- Volume80
- Explosiveness48
- Consistency0
- Receiving60
The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.
- ▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
- ▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
- ▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.22 from the first to second half of the season.
- ▸Peak game: 0.67 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs Utah (SP+ 22).
NIL Market Tier· 2025
On3 valuation ↗Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.12
- Passing downs
- 0.04
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.01 / 0.12
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).