#13Jeremy McNichols

RB·Boise State·2016 20152.4 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Jeremy McNichols is a 2-year Pass-Catching Back for Boise State. Jeremy's 2015 season ranks in the 20th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 288 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jeremy McNichols's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2015 Production

Rushing

1337 Rush yards20 Rush TD240 Carries5.6 Yards/carry

Receiving

51 Receptions460 Rec yards6 Rec TD9.0 Yards/rec

Returns

5 Kick returns89 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs RB peers

Efficiency20
Volume82
Explosiveness52
Consistency79
Receiving70

Player type

Pass-Catching Back

Third-down weapon out of the backfield. Routes, hands, and separation in coverage define this role as much as rushing.

3rd-down backReceiving threatPass protection

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)20th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency79th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.58 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs Virginia (SP+ 1).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Donnel Pumphrey	San Diego State	2016	344	0.320	4.2	110.1
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsWashington	W16-13	9.7	24	89	3.7	2	3	24	0	0.18
2	@BYU	L24-35	8.7	15	46	3.1	2	5	49	1	0.11
3	vsIdaho State	W52-0	—	15	69	4.6	3	—	—	—	0.22
4	@Virginia	W56-14	1.4	9	69	7.7	1	5	47	1	0.58
5	vsHawai'i	W55-0	-16.3	20	108	5.4	2	1	-1	0	0.09
6	@Colorado State	W41-10	0.5	17	104	6.1	2	6	77	0	0.29
8	vsWyoming	W34-14	-16.7	33	166	5.0	1	7	36	1	0.20
9	@UNLV	W55-27	-16.2	22	122	5.5	1	2	20	0	0.11
11	vsNew Mexico	L24-31	-8.7	26	128	4.9	1	8	50	1	0.05
12	vsAir Force	L30-37	4.7	20	151	7.6	1	3	22	0	0.13
13	@San José State	W40-23	-4.5	20	192	9.6	2	6	40	1	0.50
1	vsNorthern Illinois	W55-7	-0.9	19	93	4.9	2	5	96	1	0.45

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

28.8%

Passing plays

11.1%

Rushing plays

47.6%

Standard downs

32.9%

Passing downs

19.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.17
Passing downs: 0.35
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.81 / 0.07

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2015 — 2016 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2015	Boise State	2.4	0.250	—	60.5
2016	Boise State	4.7	0.330	+0.08	112.2

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.