#1Jalen Hurts

QB·Alabama·2019 2017 20167.4 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Jalen Hurts is a 3-year Dual-Threat QB for Alabama. Jalen's 2016 season ranks in the 30th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 549 plays — a developing rate for the QB. Jalen's production has improved each season, a positive development trajectory.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jalen Hurts's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

Recruiting Profile· Class of 2016

★★★★★

4-Star · High major target

Stars: ★★★★★
247 composite: 0.9262
National rank: #175
High school: Channelview
Hometown: Channelview, TX

Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.

2016 Production

Passing

240/382 Comp/Att2780 Pass yards23 Pass TD9 INT62.8% Comp %

Rushing

954 Rush yards13 Rush TD191 Carries5.0 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs QB peers

Efficiency30
Volume100
Dual-Threat82
Consistency77
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)30th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency77th %ile · above avg

Career trajectory:↑ Rising

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Career trajectory is upward — WEPA value has improved season over season.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.28 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.70 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs Arkansas (SP+ 8).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6
Trace McSorley	Penn State	2017	626	0.513	12.7	321.0
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsUSC	W52-6	23.6	6/11	118	2	1	53.5	32	2	0.44
2	vsWestern Kentucky	W38-10	15.5	23/36	287	2	0	56.0	19	0	0.39
3	@Ole Miss	W48-43	12.4	19/31	158	0	0	63.6	146	0	0.22
4	vsKent State	W48-0	-12.0	16/24	164	1	0	91.7	54	1	0.41
5	vsKentucky	W34-6	-2.6	20/33	262	2	0	57.1	25	0	0.33
6	@Arkansas	W49-30	7.9	13/17	253	2	1	85.9	20	2	0.70
7	@Tennessee	W49-10	16.3	17/27	172	1	1	76.3	132	3	0.46
8	vsTexas A&M	W33-14	12.0	15/25	164	2	2	56.5	93	1	0.34
10	@LSU	W10-0	25.3	10/19	107	0	1	62.8	114	1	0.05
11	vsMississippi State	W51-3	5.4	28/37	347	4	1	83.4	100	1	0.52
12	vsChattanooga	W31-3	—	15/21	136	3	0	55.9	68	0	0.16
13	vsAuburn	W30-12	15.3	27/36	286	2	2	52.0	37	1	0.33
14	vsFlorida	W54-16	15.4	11/20	138	1	0	27.8	1	0	0.12
1	vsClemson	L31-35	28.7	13/31	131	1	0	24.2	63	1	-0.09
1	vsWashington	W24-7	26.7	7/14	57	0	0	14.2	50	0	-0.09

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

53.3%

Passing plays

90.9%

Rushing plays

28.2%

Standard downs

49.1%

Passing downs

63.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.13
Passing downs: 0.50
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.24 / 0.31

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 — 2019 · 43 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2016	Alabama	7.4	0.444	—	254.4
2017	Alabama	5.6	0.436	-0.01	182.3
2019	Oklahoma	17.3	0.708	+0.27	394.2

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.