#1Jalen Hurts

QB·Alabama·2019 2017 20165.6 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Jalen Hurts is a 3-year Dual-Threat QB for Alabama. Jalen's 2017 season ranks in the 30th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 397 plays — a developing rate for the QB. Jalen's production has improved each season, a positive development trajectory.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jalen Hurts's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

Recruiting Profile· Class of 2016

★★★★★

4-Star · High major target

Stars: ★★★★★
247 composite: 0.9262
National rank: #175
High school: Channelview
Hometown: Channelview, TX

Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.

2017 Production

Passing

154/254 Comp/Att2081 Pass yards17 Pass TD1 INT60.6% Comp %

Rushing

855 Rush yards8 Rush TD154 Carries5.6 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs QB peers

Efficiency30
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency62
Clutch35

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)30th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency62th %ile · average

Career trajectory:↑ Rising

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Career trajectory is upward — WEPA value has improved season over season.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.13 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 2.13 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs Mercer.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsFlorida State	W24-7	22.8	10/18	96	1	0	29.5	55	0	-0.06
2	vsFresno State	W41-10	-2.7	14/18	128	1	0	98.8	154	2	0.74
3	vsColorado State	W41-23	3.9	12/17	248	2	0	98.5	103	1	0.91
4	@Vanderbilt	W59-0	0.6	9/17	78	0	0	35.9	48	0	0.02
5	vsOle Miss	W66-3	11.6	12/19	197	2	0	96.5	101	1	0.55
6	@Texas A&M	W27-19	9.4	13/22	123	1	0	49.1	56	1	0.14
7	vsArkansas	W41-9	2.1	12/19	155	1	1	61.9	41	1	0.26
8	vsTennessee	W45-7	1.2	13/21	198	1	0	62.5	14	0	0.33
10	vsLSU	W24-10	21.1	11/24	183	1	0	53.1	44	1	0.29
11	@Mississippi State	W31-24	16.0	10/18	242	1	0	91.7	40	1	0.39
12	vsMercer	W56-0	—	7/7	180	3	0	100.0	30	0	2.13
13	@Auburn	L14-26	24.7	12/22	112	1	0	46.2	82	0	0.13
1	vsGeorgia	W26-23	26.7	3/8	21	0	0	31.0	47	0	0.10
1	vsClemson	W24-6	26.4	16/24	120	2	0	56.2	40	0	0.10

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

42.1%

Passing plays

77.5%

Rushing plays

22.0%

Standard downs

35.9%

Passing downs

60.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.34
Passing downs: 0.32
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.27 / 0.48

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 — 2019 · 43 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2016	Alabama	7.4	0.444	—	254.4
2017	Alabama	5.6	0.436	-0.01	182.3
2019	Oklahoma	17.3	0.708	+0.27	394.2

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.