#9Jake Haener

QB·Fresno State·20218.1 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Jake Haener is a Clutch Passer for Fresno State. Jake's 2021 season ranks in the 33th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 525 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jake Haener's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2021 Production

Passing

329/490 Comp/Att4096 Pass yards33 Pass TD9 INT67.1% Comp %

Rushing

5 Rush yards3 Rush TD71 Carries0.1 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2021 · vs QB peers

Efficiency33
Volume100
Dual-Threat25
Consistency77
Clutch69

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)33th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency77th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.16 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.26 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Cal Poly.

NIL Market Tier· 2021

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6
Trace McSorley	Penn State	2017	626	0.513	12.7	321.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Oregon	L24-31	10.2	30/43	298	1	0	62.2	-8	1	0.34
1	vsUConn	W45-0	-25.6	20/26	331	3	0	62.0	7	0	0.34
2	vsCal Poly	W63-10	—	17/22	380	4	0	96.4	11	2	1.26
3	@UCLA	W40-37	9.4	39/53	455	2	1	66.2	-27	0	0.33
4	vsUNLV	W38-30	-13.8	30/42	378	5	1	73.2	12	0	0.59
5	@Hawai'i	L24-27	-2.3	28/50	388	3	4	56.6	36	0	0.11
7	@Wyoming	W17-0	0.6	15/28	96	2	0	40.3	12	0	0.19
8	vsNevada	W34-32	3.6	26/38	256	2	0	64.4	-10	0	0.29
9	@San Diego State	W30-20	8.3	25/42	306	1	0	84.3	-11	0	0.22
10	vsBoise State	L14-40	9.4	22/38	279	2	3	28.3	-16	0	0.08
11	vsNew Mexico	W34-7	-18.6	24/31	300	3	0	71.3	-6	0	0.42
13	@San José State	W40-9	-1.9	27/36	343	4	0	87.6	3	0	0.75
1	vsUTEP	W31-24	-4.2	26/41	286	1	0	63.6	2	0	0.27

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

58.8%

Passing plays

94.9%

Rushing plays

12.1%

Standard downs

52.9%

Passing downs

73.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.31
Passing downs: 0.45
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.39 / 0.02

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2021 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.