#16Jack Abraham

QB·Southern Miss·20197.6 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Jack Abraham is a Dual-Threat QB for Southern Miss. Jack's 2019 season ranks in the 45th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 469 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jack Abraham's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2019 Production

Passing

275/405 Comp/Att3496 Pass yards19 Pass TD15 INT67.9% Comp %

Rushing

77 Rush yards6 Rush TD81 Carries1.0 Yards/carry

Punting

1 Punts17 Punt yards17.0 Yards/punt17 Long0 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs QB peers

Efficiency45
Volume100
Dual-Threat70
Consistency74
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)45th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency74th %ile · average

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.35 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.94 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs UTEP (SP+ -26).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsAlcorn State	W38-10	—	18/28	293	1	1	91.1	7	1	0.29
2	@Mississippi State	L15-38	3.5	18/26	234	2	2	37.7	-12	0	0.23
3	@Troy	W47-42	-4.4	28/36	463	2	0	97.7	26	1	0.89
4	@Alabama	L7-49	32.4	17/26	174	1	1	30.7	-9	0	0.17
5	vsUTEP	W31-13	-25.6	19/28	351	3	0	96.3	4	0	0.94
7	vsNorth Texas	W45-27	-6.1	29/36	421	3	0	93.0	-10	1	0.85
8	@Louisiana Tech	L30-45	0.2	26/40	327	1	4	63.3	44	1	0.16
9	@Rice	W20-6	-18.0	23/36	207	0	1	56.0	27	0	0.29
11	vsUAB	W37-2	-1.4	17/22	164	2	0	—	14	0	0.39
12	@UTSA	W36-17	-23.7	22/34	290	2	1	—	14	0	0.15
13	vsWestern Kentucky	L10-28	1.7	16/31	223	1	1	—	-3	0	0.11
14	@Florida Atlantic	L17-34	-0.6	25/39	182	0	4	—	-27	1	-0.12
1	vsTulane	L13-30	7.5	17/23	167	1	0	—	2	1	0.44

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

54.7%

Passing plays

92.7%

Rushing plays

15.7%

Standard downs

44.9%

Passing downs

72.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.18
Passing downs: 0.57
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.38 / 0.25

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.