#2J.K. Dobbins

RB·Ohio State·2019 20173.3 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

J.K. Dobbins is a 2-year Explosive Back for Ohio State. J.K.'s 2017 season ranks in the 65th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 193 plays — a average rate for the RB. A four-star recruit in the class of 2017, J.K. has shown flashes of the talent that made him a coveted recruit.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So J.K. Dobbins's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

Recruiting Profile· Class of 2017

★★★★★

4-Star · High major target

Stars: ★★★★★
247 composite: 0.9790
National rank: #46
High school: La Grange
Hometown: La Grange, TX

Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.

2017 Production

Rushing

1403 Rush yards7 Rush TD194 Carries7.2 Yards/carry

Receiving

22 Receptions135 Rec yards1 Rec TD6.1 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs RB peers

Efficiency65
Volume60
Explosiveness84
Consistency68
Receiving49

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)65th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency68th %ile · average

Key findings

▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.20 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.17 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Army (SP+ -5).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8
Nick Wilson	Arizona	2014	250	0.410	5.2	102.5
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@Indiana	W49-21	10.2	29	181	6.2	0	2	24	0	0.21
2	vsOklahoma	L16-31	25.5	13	72	5.5	1	1	-1	0	0.10
3	vsArmy	W38-7	-5.3	13	172	13.2	2	—	—	—	1.17
4	vsUNLV	W54-21	-14.5	14	95	6.8	0	—	—	—	0.45
5	@Rutgers	W56-0	-5.5	6	53	8.8	0	—	—	—	0.02
6	vsMaryland	W62-14	-4.5	13	96	7.4	1	—	—	—	0.16
7	@Nebraska	W56-14	2.5	12	106	8.8	1	4	42	0	0.62
9	vsPenn State	W39-38	26.0	13	88	6.8	0	1	-1	0	0.20
10	@Iowa	L24-55	9.8	6	51	8.5	0	5	25	0	0.13
11	vsMichigan State	W48-3	13.8	18	124	6.9	0	4	20	1	0.26
12	vsIllinois	W52-14	-7.4	12	51	4.3	1	1	14	0	0.39
13	@Michigan	W31-20	19.6	15	101	6.7	1	2	7	0	0.20
14	vsWisconsin	W27-21	26.8	17	174	10.2	0	2	5	0	0.39
1	vsUSC	W24-7	17.9	13	39	3.0	0	—	—	—	-0.23

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

21.1%

Passing plays

5.7%

Rushing plays

34.0%

Standard downs

24.4%

Passing downs

11.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.31
Passing downs: 0.04
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.15 / 0.29

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 — 2019 · 28 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2017	Ohio State	3.3	0.360	—	72.0
2019	Ohio State	8.4	0.510	+0.15	162.2

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.