#9J.J. McCarthy

QB·Michigan·2023 20228.5 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

J.J. McCarthy is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Michigan. J.J.'s 2022 season ranks in the 68th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 372 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So J.J. McCarthy's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2022 Production

Passing

208/322 Comp/Att2719 Pass yards22 Pass TD5 INT64.6% Comp %

Rushing

306 Rush yards5 Rush TD70 Carries4.4 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2022 · vs QB peers

Efficiency68
Volume100
Dual-Threat90
Consistency80
Clutch52

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)68th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency80th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸9 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.23 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.34 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Hawai'i (SP+ -25).

NIL Market Tier· 2022

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsColorado State	W51-7	-22.2	4/4	30	0	0	99.9	50	1	0.93
2	vsHawai'i	W56-10	-24.7	11/12	229	3	0	99.2	16	0	1.34
3	vsUConn	W59-0	-14.6	15/18	214	0	0	63.0	7	0	0.51
4	vsMaryland	W34-27	11.2	18/26	220	2	0	67.6	5	0	0.44
5	@Iowa	W27-14	12.7	18/24	155	1	0	78.8	-14	0	0.10
6	@Indiana	W31-10	-7.1	28/36	304	3	1	82.2	26	0	0.48
7	vsPenn State	W41-17	22.4	17/24	145	0	1	77.0	57	0	0.46
9	vsMichigan State	W29-7	1.2	15/25	167	1	0	65.6	50	0	0.20
10	@Rutgers	W52-17	-9.1	13/27	151	2	0	86.0	6	1	0.39
11	vsNebraska	W34-3	-1.2	8/17	129	2	0	50.0	-8	1	0.22
12	vsIllinois	W19-17	15.9	18/34	208	0	0	46.7	18	0	0.03
13	@Ohio State	W45-23	31.1	12/24	263	3	0	92.6	27	1	0.64
14	vsPurdue	W43-22	7.7	11/17	161	3	1	—	14	0	0.60
1	vsTCU	L45-51	24.3	20/34	343	2	2	—	52	1	0.54

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

40.1%

Passing plays

85.4%

Rushing plays

10.6%

Standard downs

34.5%

Passing downs

56.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.40
Passing downs: 0.45
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.43 / 0.35

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2022 — 2023 · 29 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2022	Michigan	8.5	0.549	—	231.7
2023	Michigan	9.3	0.625	+0.08	260.1

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.