#80Harper Hughes

WR·Western Michigan·2026

Harper Hughes is a Slot Specialist WR for Western Michigan.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Harper Hughes's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2026 Production

Receiving

2 Receptions23 Rec yards0 Rec TD11.5 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2026 · vs WR peers

Efficiency67
Volume25
Explosiveness30
Consistency50
Pass-Down100

Player type

Slot Specialist WR

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)67th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.

NIL Market Tier· 2026

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Brandon Chatman	Navy	2025	52	0.230	0.6	12.0
Tyler Buchner	Notre Dame	2021	51	0.250	0.3	12.8
Justin Lynch	Temple	2021	63	0.240	0.3	15.1
Amare Jones	Tulane	2019	58	0.230	0.8	13.3
Samajie Grant	Arizona	2016	62	0.250	0.3	15.5

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	@Michigan	L12-13	12.2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2	vsMonmouth	W49-14	—	2	23	11.5	0	18	0.34

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

8.6%

Passing plays

7.7%

Rushing plays

9.7%

Standard downs

7.3%

Passing downs

11.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: -1.34
Passing downs: 0.95
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.02 / 0.27

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).