#11Gunner Kiel

QB·Cincinnati·201411.6 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Gunner Kiel is a Dual-Threat QB for Cincinnati. Gunner's 2014 season ranks in the 85th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 406 plays — a above-average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Gunner Kiel's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2014 Production

Passing

233/390 Comp/Att3254 Pass yards31 Pass TD13 INT59.7% Comp %

Rushing

142 Rush yards1 Rush TD63 Carries2.3 Yards/carry

Punting

2 Punts75 Punt yards37.5 Yards/punt42 Long1 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs QB peers

Efficiency85
Volume100
Dual-Threat78
Consistency59
Clutch67

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)85th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency59th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the QB position (85th percentile).
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.42 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.88 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Toledo (SP+ 2).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Tanner Mordecai	SMU	2021	510	0.630	14.0	321.5
Kaidon Salter	Liberty	2023	486	0.711	14.7	345.6
Malik Cunningham	Louisville	2021	502	0.681	14.7	341.6
Blake Sims	Alabama	2014	473	0.696	15.4	329.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
3	vsToledo	W58-34	2.3	25/37	418	6	0	98.0	24	0	0.88
4	vsMiami (OH)	W31-24	-18.7	25/39	271	4	2	63.0	17	0	0.47
5	@Ohio State	L28-50	25.8	21/32	352	4	0	71.7	-1	0	0.69
6	vsMemphis	L14-41	5.6	11/27	216	1	1	15.7	7	0	0.20
7	@Miami	L34-55	13.9	31/57	355	3	3	46.4	2	0	0.11
8	@SMU	W41-3	-21.2	13/20	241	1	0	96.9	50	0	0.78
9	vsSouth Florida	W34-17	-11.8	13/22	196	1	0	80.5	20	1	0.34
10	@Tulane	W38-14	-15.0	0/1	0	0	1	0.0	—	—	-0.92
12	vsEast Carolina	W54-46	8.5	29/44	436	4	3	78.9	6	0	0.58
13	@UConn	W41-0	-14.1	17/30	161	3	1	67.5	28	0	—
14	@Temple	W14-6	-4.7	19/31	174	1	0	39.1	-6	0	0.06
15	vsHouston	W38-31	5.4	15/24	190	2	0	82.0	-11	0	0.49
1	vsVirginia Tech	L17-33	7.8	14/26	244	1	2	34.3	6	0	0.30

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

47.6%

Passing plays

78.5%

Rushing plays

11.9%

Standard downs

41.0%

Passing downs

63.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.39
Passing downs: 0.52
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.46 / 0.29

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.